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Thread: US vs Venezuela

  1. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    You guys embarrassing yourselves speculating about the grand plan. There is no chess being played by this crew.

    Maduro likely just pissed off Trump and he was cancelled on some still bizarre charge. Trumpian geopolitics is ALWAYS a personal relationship with any given leader. Even then it’s like a high school romance. I love you. I hate you. We patch things up. It’s no deeper than that.

    That we are now allegedly planning to occupy Venezuela is prolly just the result of our addled leaders riff. You think anyone in the cabinet knew about that? There was most likely no such plan and may well be TACO’d before a multiyear disaster ensues.

    Then again no one has the sack to counsel Donald.

    Anyway international rules have been cancelled and we will see what latitude China or Russia think they too are entitled to. Good times.

    The authoritarian vision is indeed fast & efficient but it’s flawed in that it’s entirely character driven
    I disagree.

    Remember the bombings of the boats? Remember how angry the libs got because "innocent fishermen" (lol) on obvious drug boats were getting killed?

    Now, I didn't give a shit that the drug runners were getting killed. Part of the risk you take when you're an international drug runner. However, I did wonder WHY we were doing this. Clearly Venezuela was not the epicenter of the source of illegal US drugs, so why were we so focused upon those particular boats, and no others?

    I assumed this was setting up an excuse for something bigger to happen later, and indeed this was it.

    There is likely something planned here.


    Also... not so fast regarding your conclusions about Russia and China.

    Both of these regimes take advantage when they sense weakness. That was why Ukraine was attacked on Biden's watch. He made it very clear on national TV which crossed lines would cause the US to get heavily involved, and which would have us mostly on the sidelines.

    This is the type of shit that gives Russia and China pause. Trump is hard to predict. He does shit like this. It's hard for other countries to plan around his unpredictability. That's a good thing. That's why his foreign policy worked so well in his first term, and why Biden's and Obama's were so disasterous.

    If this becomes a tedious and expensive nation building effort, or if this ultimately yields nothing positive for the US, people will have questions. I'm not saying that we are underestimating Trump's genius. I'm saying that he's the loose-aggressive player at the table whom many opponents don't understand, and just might win as a result.

    When an educated hyper partisan who knows better breaks out the It’s 4d cHeSs!

  2. #142
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Then what was the point of the boat bombings?

    I'm sure we agree that the concern wasn't actually drugs.

    If that was a prelude to making an excuse to grab Maduro, shouldn't that mean there's a coherent plan in place, even if it's one with which you might not agree?

  3. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Then what was the point of the boat bombings?

    I'm sure we agree that the concern wasn't actually drugs.

    If that was a prelude to making an excuse to grab Maduro, shouldn't that mean there's a coherent plan in place, even if it's one with which you might not agree?
    Of course drugs being WMD’s was horseshit. It did give cover for having a big presence down there for the body snatching.

    Occupation and nation building is a completely different league. We have NEVER been good at that and I am pretty sure that was not ever the plan. I choose to think Trump just had one of his moments on stage.

    Halliburton and Schlumberger are rallying but I wrote that off to ploppy activity. Not fading them yet but thought about it

    Rubio and Hegseth looked scared to death Sunday when trying to respond to questions in that vein. How to wing it and not embarrass Trump and suffer his wrath afterward

    TACO and theater

     
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      godsonsafari: you cant even give us the credit for occupation because we haven't done that either. we snatched this dude. we have accomplished literally zero else.

  4. #144
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  5. #145
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    Okay. Who's Next?



  6. #146
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  7. #147
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  9. #149
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    The further you go down the rabbit hole the more you realize that the "t" is silent.

  10. #150
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    so this was a 'law enforcement' incident but no one read him his miranda rights. cool cool.


    btw at least one of those boats was literally shipping bales of weed.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  11. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Then what was the point of the boat bombings?

    I'm sure we agree that the concern wasn't actually drugs.

    If that was a prelude to making an excuse to grab Maduro, shouldn't that mean there's a coherent plan in place, even if it's one with which you might not agree?
    Of course drugs being WMD’s was horseshit. It did give cover for having a big presence down there for the body snatching.

    Occupation and nation building is a completely different league. We have NEVER been good at that and I am pretty sure that was not ever the plan. I choose to think Trump just had one of his moments on stage.

    Halliburton and Schlumberger are rallying but I wrote that off to ploppy activity. Not fading them yet but thought about it

    Rubio and Hegseth looked scared to death Sunday when trying to respond to questions in that vein. How to wing it and not embarrass Trump and suffer his wrath afterward

    TACO and theater
    South Korea, Japan, Germany and Panama are clear examples of successful nation building. I would say our methods of governance require a high IQ liberal society and are completely incompatible with low IQ zero sum tribal societies, which would include most of Africa and the greater Muslim world. Venezuela I really dont know.

    That being said, I would say you are correct that isn't the goal of the Trump administration. As you and other's have alluded, I would agree there is no clear goal. They are just mashing buttons.

    However, the Venezuelan govt cant survive the current US embargo; so something has to give.

    Either Trump has to loosen the embargo (on whatever terms him and the current govt agree on) or Venezuela will collapse into anarchy and starvation.

    The status quo is not sustainable at all. Something has to happen.

     
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      Salty_Aus: Bad example, you nuked Japan but that's not significant is it?... Anyone else ever vaporised civilians with nukes, or military targets for that matter?

  12. #152
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    lots of high level analysis out there of how the VZ oil infrastructure is arguably the most vulnerable to hostile interruption in the world.

    if anyone anywhere wants to sabotage american oil concerns in VZ they have the absolutely perfect terrain to do it from and the US has zero point zero people who are going to pitch in to help them stamp out a motivated, well funded, completely decentralized guerilla fighting force.

    the only people alive in the world today who could possibly be useful for that endeavor are the columbians and we just threatened their president with an extrajudicial arrest for absolutely no reason at all.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  13. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    lots of high level analysis out there of how the VZ oil infrastructure is arguably the most vulnerable to hostile interruption in the world.

    if anyone anywhere wants to sabotage american oil concerns in VZ they have the absolutely perfect terrain to do it from and the US has zero point zero people who are going to pitch in to help them stamp out a motivated, well funded, completely decentralized guerilla fighting force.

    the only people alive in the world today who could possibly be useful for that endeavor are the columbians and we just threatened their president with an extrajudicial arrest for absolutely no reason at all.

    blackrock

  14. #154
    Plutonium sonatine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    lots of high level analysis out there of how the VZ oil infrastructure is arguably the most vulnerable to hostile interruption in the world.

    if anyone anywhere wants to sabotage american oil concerns in VZ they have the absolutely perfect terrain to do it from and the US has zero point zero people who are going to pitch in to help them stamp out a motivated, well funded, completely decentralized guerilla fighting force.

    the only people alive in the world today who could possibly be useful for that endeavor are the columbians and we just threatened their president with an extrajudicial arrest for absolutely no reason at all.

    blackrock

    ehhhn 5 minutes after the first blackrock guy comes home minus a foot from a land mine that we probably manufactured, what little appetite the public has for this adventure is going to implode.
    "Birds born in a cage think flying is an illness." - Alejandro Jodorowsky

    "America is not so much a nightmare as a non-dream. The American non-dream is precisely a move to wipe the dream out of existence. The dream is a spontaneous happening and therefore dangerous to a control system set up by the non-dreamers." -- William S. Burroughs

  15. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by sonatine View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post


    blackrock

    ehhhn 5 minutes after the first blackrock guy comes home minus a foot from a land mine that we probably manufactured, what little appetite the public has for this adventure is going to implode.


    irl, i have yet to come across anyone pleased with this. zero.

     
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      sonatine: no one voted for this

  16. #156
    Flashlight Master desertrunner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Then what was the point of the boat bombings?
    Come on Druff, the boats were filled with large drug containers and related drug supplies. I think Trump nailed it when asked- Why are you bombing them and his response was nothing else has worked over the last 30 years...and he is correct.

    I'm sure we agree that the concern wasn't actually drugs.
    YES, it was. The USA doesnt want drugs coming into the country anymore. Weak Biden was letting it happen.

  17. #157
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post

    Of course drugs being WMD’s was horseshit. It did give cover for having a big presence down there for the body snatching.

    Occupation and nation building is a completely different league. We have NEVER been good at that and I am pretty sure that was not ever the plan. I choose to think Trump just had one of his moments on stage.

    Halliburton and Schlumberger are rallying but I wrote that off to ploppy activity. Not fading them yet but thought about it

    Rubio and Hegseth looked scared to death Sunday when trying to respond to questions in that vein. How to wing it and not embarrass Trump and suffer his wrath afterward

    TACO and theater
    South Korea, Japan, Germany and Panama are clear examples of successful nation building. I would say our methods of governance require a high IQ liberal society and are completely incompatible with low IQ zero sum tribal societies, which would include most of Africa and the greater Muslim world. Venezuela I really dont know.

    That being said, I would say you are correct that isn't the goal of the Trump administration. As you and other's have alluded, I would agree there is no clear goal. They are just mashing buttons.

    However, the Venezuelan govt cant survive the current US embargo; so something has to give.

    Either Trump has to loosen the embargo (on whatever terms him and the current govt agree on) or Venezuela will collapse into anarchy and starvation.

    The status quo is not sustainable at all. Something has to happen.
    Well played with the years immediately following WWII. I’ve seen the black and white movies of the Marshall plan and all that from 85 years ago. The math works out to some kind of Strauss–Howe generational theory? Like the Buffalo Bills we are due for a win - you are arguing?

    With respect to occupation and nation building I’ll offer this as some kind of concession on my part. I somewhat believe that Trump is willing to see a flop here. He has no plan but he’ll entertain offers and ideas from business. Some gold bricks will be laid on his desk. Some Trump coin bought and sold. Maybe someone comes up with a scheme.

    Maybe some private military contractor like blackwater steps up. Remember we have promised to rebuild Ukraine and Gaza. Some ingenuity is gonna be required here.

    We both know this is Kabuki Theater so far but it might morph into something unexpected. Having no plan might actually be +EV.

    You are always entertaining and clever Mr Kalam.

  18. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanlmar View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Then what was the point of the boat bombings?

    I'm sure we agree that the concern wasn't actually drugs.

    If that was a prelude to making an excuse to grab Maduro, shouldn't that mean there's a coherent plan in place, even if it's one with which you might not agree?
    Of course drugs being WMD’s was horseshit. It did give cover for having a big presence down there for the body snatching.

    Occupation and nation building is a completely different league. We have NEVER been good at that and I am pretty sure that was not ever the plan. I choose to think Trump just had one of his moments on stage.

    Halliburton and Schlumberger are rallying but I wrote that off to ploppy activity. Not fading them yet but thought about it

    Rubio and Hegseth looked scared to death Sunday when trying to respond to questions in that vein. How to wing it and not embarrass Trump and suffer his wrath afterward

    TACO and theater
    My point is that we don't do the boat stuff unless grabbing Maduro was also on the to-do list.

    My guess is the nation building thing isn't on the agenda. Trump is probably hoping to get a US puppet installed there, in exchange for US support in some matters, in exchange back for some oil. It could actually work. If Venezuela was lacking in oil, I'd admit that the prospects there would be very grim for restoring the place without spending a ton of $$ .

    I don't see Trump as a button masher. He's more of a man of simple plans, where he has an objective, but he doesn't spend a lot of time analyzing things. He's not the guy to ask for eggheads to simulate 1000 different scenarios of the years following grabbing Maduro. He thinks a few steps ahead and decides whether it's a good idea or not. In this case, it appears he decided awhile ago that we were going to do this, but first we had to bomb a few drug boats in order to create the illusion of justification.

    It is possible to overthink foreign policy. Democrats have bene guilty of that for years. They overanalyze themselves into either mistakes or inaction.

    The 2020 Soleimani assassination was a good example of this. Dems had mulled this over for years, but their "experts" told them that this would be seen by Iran as an act of war, and would plunge us into an expensive and interminable Middle East conflict. Trump looked at it for a short time and said, "Iran is scared of us. They're not gonna do shit back. Let's kill him."

    It turned out that Trump was correct, and not just by dumb luck. In that situation, the simple analysis was the correct one, and the fancy play syndrome analysis by the Dems was actually wrong.

    When you're one of the world superpowers, you are taking a relatively small risk by picking on much weaker enemies, provided you're doing it in a way where you're not going to be stuck in a costly ground war. The US hasn't done enough of that in recent years, and we've taken far too much shit from nothing countries because we were afraid of what the UN would think.

    Anyway, while this Maduro thing could turn out to be a mistake, there are also paths I can picture to where it works out. That's why I'm not judging it negatively -- at least not yet. I'm actually happier with this development than I was the bombing of those random drug boats, as that by itself made little sense.

  19. #159
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    Shocker, this Venezuela scandal is for the benefit of billionaire Paul Singer. A top donor to Trump and Rubio.
    He's literally one of the most evil people on the planet.

    The GOP doesn't work for the American people, they work for their donors, always.

    https://twitter.com/buckleycarlson/status/2008409953443184897
    The further you go down the rabbit hole the more you realize that the "t" is silent.

  20. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayjami View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by 1dollarboxcar View Post
    where's Druff? we didn't exactly vote for this shit did we..??
    He has to check with his Zionist overlords before he can issue a comment.

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