*** Official MLB Playoffs 2016 Thread ***

[Dan Druff]

I am curious where this misinformation came from. I know you lived in the Bovada world of bad lines but I thought you were self aware.

I have in the past asked folks, especially you and Daly, to post about your process. Crickets. I am pretty much self taught and havent read the sports betting forums as I expect the stupidity you find on 2+2. It sorta works for me so far but I could learn more.

I do use SBR. I am fascinated by the books reporting process to this site. I am guarded and vigilant about the data I see but it is a tool I use.

SBR listed the game as "going off" at -190 +180. I have no idea where you got your number. BetOnline opened with -160. I don't really understand what that SBR starting number represents or how it is derived. It's just a thing - it represents a casual starting point.

I would think you would be in the market for another book or two. I have written about BetOnline. They quite often are early and if you come ready with an idea you might snap a great line. I often take a starting position with the intent to trade around this initial buy. As the dumb books like Bovada come online you can unwind or hedge.

Sorry for the detour. I always viewed this forum as bar room banter. One idea or subject morphs into another. Sometimes the gold turns up unexpectedly. Lol, most often not but you keep panning.

10/14/2016 12:46:08 PM
Description:
Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 904 Chicago Cubs -160 for Game

Not sure what you're talking about.

The +195/-225 line I posted was standard at most books when I posted it, and it stayed fairly close.

Some books would have been +195/-215, but whatever.

If you got +180 anywhere near game time, you got ripped off.

[Sanlmar]

Guess I have no idea what you were talking about when you said the Dodgers "went off +190"

What does that mean if not the opening line.

Yeah, in my world the line went from Cubs -160 to -225. Dodgers +140 to +195 You logged in and found a number. Ok.

Our minds don't work the same usually.

[Sanlmar]

Hendricks has actually been better than Kershaw lately and Cubs are still home. Feels low stress.

Mobile - Baseball - MLB - 908 Chicago Cubs +112 for Game

[Dan Druff]

Guess I have no idea what you were talking about when you said the Dodgers "went off +190"

What does that mean if not the opening line.

Yeah, in my world the line went from Cubs -160 to -225. Dodgers +140 to +195 You logged in and found a number. Ok.

Our minds don't work the same usually.

"Went off at +190" means the game was +190 when the first pitch was thrown.

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers tickets, still very high priced compared to both the NLDS and previous NLCS appearances, have fallen about 10% for Game 3 since yesterday.

They will really start to fall if the Dodgers don't win.

[Dan Druff]

Not good news for Dodgers.

Hendricks looked excellent in the first, with 2 quick strikeouts and a weak groundout.

Now time to see how Kershaw does.

[Sanlmar]

"Went off at +190" means the game was +190 when the first pitch was thrown.

That's funny. I'm an idiot. See the way my head works? I was only thinking about the wagering and the prices. Forgot about the actual baseball game.

[Sanlmar]

Thank you AGon

Now I get a good price

10/16/2016 8:26:14 PM
Description:
LOS ANGELES DODGERS at CHICAGO CUBS [BATTER PROPS] Moneyline CUBS +180

Edit
I am fully aware the Dodgers bullpen is in better shape.
Scaling in as the money line rises as long as a one run differential. Added at +210

Go Cubs

[Henry]

Re: last night's game

I firmly believe that Roberts made the correct decision.

The decision was:

Blanton vs Coghlan (8-17 .471) runners on 1st and 2nd.
Blanton vs Montero (2-11 .182) bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.
Avilan vs Contreras bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.

I don't think the decision is even close, but even if it were the most erroneous managerial decisions move the game odds at most 2% (not a made up number). The play is on the field.

Blanton tried to bury a slider 0-2 and instead went middle-middle, that's what it cane down to.

[Sanlmar]

Henry,

Would you have taken a Cubs run line -1 +210 pregame?

I am not saying this is my thinking - prolly more the warmth a season of taking this line and winning.

[Henry]

I may have but after watching the zone in the first inning and how crisp Kershaw looks, this ballgame is over my friend.

Joe Buck may mention the 2-6 postseason record 4.50+ era to entertain the masses and reach the lowest common denominators out there. But lets look at the 70ip by the predictive stats: Same k/9, same BB/9, same FIP, same xFIP, same SIERA, same truERA. The FIP is lower than Bums over his 100 inning sample that gave him the label of "greatest postseason picher of all-time". I'll predict these things balance out over the next decade. Regression to the mean.

Good luck making money betting against Kershaw tonight, let me know how that works out for you.

[Dan Druff]

Re: last night's game

I firmly believe that Roberts made the correct decision.

The decision was:

Blanton vs Coghlan (8-17 .471) runners on 1st and 2nd.
Blanton vs Montero (2-11 .182) bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.
Avilan vs Contreras bases loaded and remove Chapman out of the game.

I don't think the decision is even close, but even if it were the most erroneous managerial decisions move the game odds at most 2% (not a made up number). The play is on the field.

Blanton tried to bury a slider 0-2 and instead went middle-middle, that's what it cane down to.

Small sample sizes.

Even if you want to take these as gospel, then remove Blanton and put someone else in to face Coghlan. It's not like we are talking about Kris Bryant here. The guy is a .188 hitter.

Walking the go-ahead to 3rd could not be correct.

Yes, the biggest mistake was Blanton's, by making that bad pitch.

You should tell Sanlmar that managerial decisions in MLB are not as important as coaching decisions in the NBA. He doesn't seem to believe or understand this.

[Sanlmar]

Kershaw is breezing.

On the other side the Dodger are not an offensive juggernaut.

I came with a plan. I just took one last helping at +250. I have reached Max Pain.

[Henry]

I mean Coghlan's season average was .188 (Montero's .216) but he was a 13% better than league average hitter for the Cubs this season while Montero was 17% worse than league average this year (113 wRC+ vs 83 wRC+). Coghlan was bad in Oakland, I have no idea why that is, but I think he's a much better hitter than Montero at this point in their careers. But my thinking had more to do with removing Chapman. Fun to talk about either way.

And I agree baseball managers have less of an impact than coaches or managers in other sports. Belichick and Pop hold more value than Maddon or Bochy, I didn't know that was even arguable. And I'd rather have a baseball manager that knows how to help his young players through their struggles over a long grinding season than a good in game manager, if I had to choose one or the other.

Edit: Smoltz just mentioned Mike Montgomery may become a good lefty starter as soon as next season. Here's a nice summary article on why that may be:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mik...sixth-starter/

[Dan Druff]

LOL @ all the people who counted the Dodgers out after 1 game.

Cubs aren't hitting in the postseason, if you haven't noticed.

Time to continue that 108-year curse.

Sadly I will probably miss the NLCS in person, as ticket prices are just insane, likely thanks to all the LA-residing Cubs fans.

[Sanlmar]

LOL @ all the people who counted the Dodgers out after 1 game.

Cubs aren't hitting in the postseason, if you haven't noticed.

Time to continue that 108-year curse.

Sadly I will probably miss the NLCS in person, as ticket prices are just insane, likely thanks to all the LA-residing Cubs fans.

I am shaken to my core. AGon & Kershaw. Like a knife in my heart. Lol, to learn Kershaw is a hunting knife brand.

Fox puts up 28 ERA for Kershaw in post season 7th inning.
7th inning first batter and a quick walk by Kershaw. The truth is about to be revealed. My understanding of life will be vindicated.

Kershaw was brilliant and the pain is intolerable.

Yup, not over. Better drama. I have loved every playoff game.

[big dick]

LOL @ all the people who counted the Dodgers out after 1 game.

Cubs aren't hitting in the postseason, if you haven't noticed.

Time to continue that 108-year curse.

Sadly I will probably miss the NLCS in person, as ticket prices are just insane, likely thanks to all the LA-residing Cubs fans.

fuck off
dodgers are +400 You should load up on them to win the world series.

[big dick]

cubs only + 130 for some odd reason.

[PLOL]

[BeerAndPoker]

Please Blu Jays can you at least make a series out of this?