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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #42481
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Un fucking real. Basketball beat of the year candidate.

    I had Timberwolves in a parlay other legs already hit and they are up 8 with one minute left and somehow lose in regulation. Multiple turnovers and missed FT's over the last minute. Sick, sick, sick.

    And this is on top of having a bad week so far, where I really needed that one.

    Horrible.

    I have Rockets -2.5 and they are up 2 with 5 minutes left. Going to turn that game on now and watch this one probably lose too.
    You are a good dude here, but come on, parlays, really?

    Probably better off flying to ….. and offering to suck Sonatine off for cash. Guaranteed winner.

  2. #42482
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Un fucking real. Basketball beat of the year candidate.

    I had Timberwolves in a parlay other legs already hit and they are up 8 with one minute left and somehow lose in regulation. Multiple turnovers and missed FT's over the last minute. Sick, sick, sick.

    And this is on top of having a bad week so far, where I really needed that one.

    Horrible.

    I have Rockets -2.5 and they are up 2 with 5 minutes left. Going to turn that game on now and watch this one probably lose too.
    You are a good dude here, but come on, parlays, really?

    Probably better off flying to ….. and offering to suck Sonatine off for cash. Guaranteed winner.
    Nothing wrong with parlaying a couple ML's together, as long as it each leg is inside -300 (the bigger the spread, the more EV you give up if you do ML). Probably around the same EV as betting game lines -110.

    A team being up 8 with one minute left and losing in regulation really is way under 1% chance happening. See something like that a couple times a year in the whole NBA season.

    And Houston shits the bread down the stretch pretty much not scoring in the last 3 minutes and loses comfortably.

  3. #42483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    What's funny is that I was trying to get o250.5 on Polymarket for +117, and I only got $47 in action and nobody else would touch it.

    So I finally said fuck it and just fired on o249.5.... but by the time I got it done, the line had moved to -112 on the best book I had, and Poly was even worse at -117.

    So I was annoyed but said whatever.

    Now it's fortunate nobody wanted my 250.5 because that would've lost.
    My book had 250.5. I almost took it out of principle, as sometime if you see a total or spread so ridiculous you feel obliged to take it. The most memorable ridiculous bet I made was one year when Fl St. football was very good the spread was like 70 or something against an FCS team, so I took them. And the bet was actually ultimately voided because there was a weather delay in the 3rd Q when Fl St. was up 50 or something, and they just called the game.

    Glad I didn't take the 250.5 in this case obviously. Chicago forgetting how to shoot until garbage time and losing by the hook would have been very annoying. As annoying as all these other plays I am losing.

  4. #42484
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post

    You are a good dude here, but come on, parlays, really?

    Probably better off flying to ….. and offering to suck Sonatine off for cash. Guaranteed winner.
    Nothing wrong with parlaying a couple ML's together, as long as it each leg is inside -300 (the bigger the spread, the more EV you give up if you do ML). Probably around the same EV as betting game lines -110.

    A team being up 8 with one minute left and losing in regulation really is way under 1% chance happening. See something like that a couple times a year in the whole NBA season.

    And Houston shits the bread down the stretch pretty much not scoring in the last 3 minutes and loses comfortably.

    Respectfully disagree unless you can show me you weren’t better off betting all of them individually laying the odds. It’s still a sucker bet unless you can show me betting the parlay is a better bet.

  5. #42485
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post

    Nothing wrong with parlaying a couple ML's together, as long as it each leg is inside -300 (the bigger the spread, the more EV you give up if you do ML). Probably around the same EV as betting game lines -110.

    A team being up 8 with one minute left and losing in regulation really is way under 1% chance happening. See something like that a couple times a year in the whole NBA season.

    And Houston shits the bread down the stretch pretty much not scoring in the last 3 minutes and loses comfortably.

    Respectfully disagree unless you can show me you weren’t better off betting all of them individually laying the odds. It’s still a sucker bet unless you can show me betting the parlay is a better bet.
    I didn't say it was better than betting individually. Maybe a little EV less, but not too bad as long as spreads aren't too big.

    All bets are "sucker bets" unless you believe you have information the books dont. Flipping coins at -110 odds clearly isn't a wining strategy either.

  6. #42486
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Well, Utah over easily covered.

    Shame on me for doubting it. I said a few days ago that I was committing to fire them until they show they can play any defense. They coughed up 144 today.

    Felt to ploppyish to bet it, but sometimes you just gotta go with it.

  7. #42487
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    Daly--

    u got any college foosball plays for today?

  8. #42488
    Plutonium simpdog's Avatar
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    Ranked men's college basketball teams are 85-0 vs. unranked teams this season.
    That is the LONGEST win streak by ranked teams against unranked opponents at any point in a season in AP Poll history

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    Memphis +1 -110 at Dallas

  10. #42490
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Memphis +1 -110 at Dallas

  11. #42491
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simpdog View Post
    Ranked men's college basketball teams are 85-0 vs. unranked teams this season.
    That is the LONGEST win streak by ranked teams against unranked opponents at any point in a season in AP Poll history
    Professional athletes vs scholarship kids. It’s a different era.

  12. #42492
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Memphis +1 -110 at Dallas


    i tailed. nice hit, ty.


    i like our birds tomorrow. let's hope sf gets beat monday. what did you make of all the werido picks --- jax/atl?

  13. #42493
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    Okay, here are a lot of picks. Let's hope I don't get destroyed. Tail at your own risk.

    New Orleans -2 -105 vs Cleveland
    I didn't think it could be possible for me to pick NO as a fave this year. Yes, Cousins is that bad.

    Detroit -13 -110 vs NY Giants
    In 1991, I spread a rumor in my college dorm dining commons that they put chalk in the macaroni and cheese, and it was believable. This one is even chalkier.

    Cincinnati +7.5 -110 vs New England
    Somehow Flacco has been really good at home, and despite the 9–2 record, Patriots rank in the bottom five against the pass in Defensive DVOA.

    Arizona +115 vs Jacksonville
    Jax has done better than expected this year, but they're now overrated. Cardinals should win this one outright at home.

    Dallas +145 vs Philadelphia
    Eagles offense just hasn't been clicking this year, and Jalen Hurts is 11-18 lifetime ATS against sub-.500 teams.

    Las Vegas -3.5 -105 vs Cleveland
    Shedeur Sanders looked about as bad as he could possibly look last week. Cleveland's fairly good defense at home just hasn't translated to the road, and they're 0-5 overall while away.

    Las Vegas vs Cleveland - Under 36 -110
    Vegas is averaging 15.5 points per game. Sanders is a fiasco and will make a bad Cleveland offense (16.2 ppg) even worse.

  14. #42494
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    Jacksonville Jaguars are as close as a LOCK today as you get, Cardinals starting Jacoby Brissett so a backup

    Jacksonville Jaguars ~-135 favorite but not so huge

    (Jaguars should win, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't been so great..)

  15. #42495
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Jacksonville Jaguars are as close as a LOCK today as you get, Cardinals starting Jacoby Brissett so a backup

    Jacksonville Jaguars ~-135 favorite but not so huge

    (Jaguars should win, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't been so great..)
    Known as a trap line

  16. #42496
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Jacksonville Jaguars are as close as a LOCK today as you get, Cardinals starting Jacoby Brissett so a backup

    Jacksonville Jaguars ~-135 favorite but not so huge

    (Jaguars should win, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't been so great..)


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  17. #42497
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    Quote Originally Posted by garrett View Post
    Jacksonville Jaguars are as close as a LOCK today as you get, Cardinals starting Jacoby Brissett so a backup

    Jacksonville Jaguars ~-135 favorite but not so huge

    (Jaguars should win, but Trevor Lawrence hasn't been so great..)

    Brissett has been the QB for like a month now and has been playing way better than Kyler was

  18. #42498
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    Utah again

    Lakers vs Utah - Over 244.5 -105

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