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Thread: *** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

  1. #41181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, here's a game pretty much nobody is thinking about today:

    Washington at Sacramento - Over 236.5
    I am following this game because I have unrelated action. Both teams around 30% from 3, and that is with Ellis going 6-8, which isn't helping.

    But the biggest problem is the Wizards offense is just brutal. Except for Valancuinas it is just nonstop turnovers and bricks. No one on this team can shoot at all tonight.

  2. #41182
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Natty

    60 odd percent coming in on Ohio State. Line opened at 9.5 and dropped to 8.5. Think its clear they want OSU $$. Give me the Irish.

    Total opened at 45.5 and it hasn't budged. ~75% of $$ on over. Under by the ##s is one of the best bets on tbe board.

    Gl

  3. #41183
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    I bet 2 player props in morning NBA Mavericks vs Hornets game, PJ Washington and Mark Wiliams

    PJ got 3 personal fouls in 7 minutes of play and prop is more or less dead.
    Williams got 4 personal fouls in 9 minutes of play and prop is 100% dead.

    Good start to day.

  4. #41184
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    I bet 2 player props in morning NBA Mavericks vs Hornets game, PJ Washington and Mark Wiliams

    PJ got 3 personal fouls in 7 minutes of play and prop is more or less dead.
    Williams got 4 personal fouls in 9 minutes of play and prop is 100% dead.

    Good start to day.

    Such is life for an over bettor.

    Sucks man.

  5. #41185
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    If anyone has Heritage Sports and Betonline, here is a good Under/Over yards rushing prop bet on TreVeyon Henderson.
    Heritage Sports has the under / over at 53.5 and Betonlie has the over/under at 60.5.

    Betonline Line
    Name:  Screenshot 2025-01-20 at 18.36.19.png
Views: 208
Size:  169.0 KB

    Heritage Line
    Name:  Screenshot 2025-01-20 at 18.36.04.png
Views: 205
Size:  35.0 KB

  6. #41186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daly View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    I bet 2 player props in morning NBA Mavericks vs Hornets game, PJ Washington and Mark Wiliams

    PJ got 3 personal fouls in 7 minutes of play and prop is more or less dead.
    Williams got 4 personal fouls in 9 minutes of play and prop is 100% dead.

    Good start to day.

    Such is life for an over bettor.

    Sucks man.
    Yep.

    They both got normal second half run, didn't shoot particularly well, and missed their props by not very much. If either had shot well or had full run even shooting poorly they would have hit the props.

    To add insult to injury Mavs were down 3 and Klay missed a fairly open 3 with a couple seconds left that would have likely* taken it to OT.

    *Hornets would have had a couple seconds to take a game winning shot. PJ Washington almost assuredly hits his prop in OT and Williams maybe.

  7. #41187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pickleball View Post
    If anyone has Heritage Sports and Betonline, here is a good Under/Over yards rushing prop bet on TreVeyon Henderson.
    Heritage Sports has the under / over at 53.5 and Betonlie has the over/under at 60.5.

    Betonline Line
    Name:  Screenshot 2025-01-20 at 18.36.19.png
Views: 208
Size:  169.0 KB

    Heritage Line
    Name:  Screenshot 2025-01-20 at 18.36.04.png
Views: 205
Size:  35.0 KB
    Do you think it is +EV to try to middle with that much juice? Basically you would need to middle it more than 1/7 of the time for it to be +EV, which intuitively seems like it would happen. But you wouldn't be making much to the point it hardly seems worth it.

  8. #41188
    Diamond Tellafriend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Do you think it is +EV to try to middle with that much juice? Basically you would need to middle it more than 1/7 of the time for it to be +EV, which intuitively seems like it would happen. But you wouldn't be making much to the point it hardly seems worth it.

    K - are you not going to grace us with your picks for tonight?

  9. #41189
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    i got the irish at +9

  10. #41190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellafriend View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Do you think it is +EV to try to middle with that much juice? Basically you would need to middle it more than 1/7 of the time for it to be +EV, which intuitively seems like it would happen. But you wouldn't be making much to the point it hardly seems worth it.

    K - are you not going to grace us with your picks for tonight?
    Sorry.

    Had Ohio St. in a teaser with Chiefs. Pretty anticlimactic lock.



    I actually had OVER in Pelicans/Jazz and came in to comment I got lucky and won due to OT. I come in to complain the 90% of time I get unlucky, so only fair I remark in the very rare instances I get some run good going my way.

  11. #41191
    Master of Props Daly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrPeters View Post
    i got the irish at +9

    Ohio st left 40 seconds on the clock at the end of the 4q before the 2min warning.

    They dont piss away that :40 and they never have to kick the FG and we win by 1.

    Oh well / it was a great season all and all / here is to next season.

  12. #41192
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    Aberg 11-1

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    Notre Dame +2200
    Odds to win 2024/25 National Championship

    Ticket#761077424-1
    StatusPending (NCAAF Futures 0 - Odds to win 2024/25 National Championship 0)
    Risk/Win$ 50.00 / $ 1,100.00
    NCAAF Futures / Odds to win 2024/25 National Championship

    AcceptedAug 21, 2024 10:26 AM - (EST)
    Placed OnInternet

  14. #41194
    Owner Dan Druff's Avatar
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    Time for a bitch session.

    I had a 3-player prop ticket on Underdog yesterday. First was Collier over 11.5 rebounds + assists. Easily went over in 3rd.

    I had to wait 2 hours for the late game to start. I had Porter under 9.5 rebounds + assists + points in first half. Had zero after 1 quarter. Nice. However, in the second they played him almost the entire way, and he started racking up stats. He got up to 7, then kept firing shots. Fortunately he missed them all, and they took him out with 2 minutes left. Hit that one, although was a big sweat.

    Then I had Zach LaVine under 26.5 points. Looked great! 4 points after 1, 9 at halftime. Then he just dominated the 3rd, and had 15. Obviously I was fucked unless he got hurt, or if Chicago blew out the Clippers, which they almost did, being up 18 while he was out. Sadly the Clips got back in it, LaVine came in, and finished with 35.

    Really frustrating. I thought that was gonna be a fairly easy win after the first half.

  15. #41195
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    Wizards +13.5

    Hachimua O11.5 points -118

    Lebron O1.5 3's -180

  16. #41196
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalam View Post
    Wizards +13.5

    Hachimua O11.5 points -118

    Lebron O1.5 3's -180
    On pace to go 0-3. Both Lebron and Hachimura started off aggressive; ball just didn't go in the basket. But Lakers still comfortable lead.

    Sigh.

  17. #41197
    Gold Starbucks Spunk Bucket's Avatar
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    San- what about Joker rolling back the years vs Carlitos?

    Eagles -6
    KC -1.5
    BALLIN'!!

  18. #41198
    Plutonium Sanlmar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Starbucks Spunk Bucket View Post
    San- what about Joker rolling back the years vs Carlitos?
    I’m a loser

    Name:  IMG_3115.jpeg
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    No words. Hurt. Taking pain killers. Old. And he was just getting stronger vs Alcaraz as the match went on. I live bet under 39.5 games as I saw he was crushing Alcatraz’s soul. Recovered some of my match loss.

    What am I doing fading him? He is right there with Michael Jordan in my book and I tried to fade him. Dumb ass

    I’m not touching anything else on the men’s side. Sinner was sick and now he’s not? Joker is hurt? I’m off it. Will watch though and maybe live.

    I still don’t think I truly appreciate how great an athlete and a killer he really is.

    So yeah, I fucked up and I have to rebuild my shattered self image.

  19. #41199
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    Haha yeah, pretty unbelievable. Fritz and Tsitsipas losing were also massive shocks. And look at the women’s- Badosa beating Coco in straight sets! Live betting is definitely the way forward in all sports betting if you ask me.

    I haven’t been able to watch much this time but might have a wager in these final games. Hoping Keys pulls off a shock today but no doubt she’ll win 3 games. GL
    BALLIN'!!

  20. #41200
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    Come on Maddy..

    Just did a Chiefs ML 4/5 double with Maddy Keys live 2/1

    Think Saby will get nervy in the business end

     
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    BALLIN'!!

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