*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[Dan Druff]

What a weird fucking game.

Mavs start up 10-0.

Then they give up a 29-12 run to end the 1st, down 29-22.

Then they wallop OKC 41-14, and go into halftime up 63-43.

I can buy out the +212 I got on Polymarket for +185, or I can try for +188 if I can find takers. Decided to get greedy and try +188. Got 40% of my original bet BACK, but that was it, and halftime ended.

Then Thunder came out and stomped on Dallas 12-0 in the first 4 minutes. Now 63-55, and of course I wish I bought out fully at +185. Anyway, I'm gonna ride it out and hope I win, otherwise I end up losing 60% of my bet.

Alexander didn't play, as I expected, so this was a good bet in theory.

[Dan Druff]

Insane swings in that game.

Both teams went through extended periods of being terrible.

Dallas managed to go from 63-43 at half to trailing 74-72 in the 3rd.

In the 4th it was a back-and-forth, though OKC couldn't really get ahead. OKC pulled into a tie a million times, then Dallas would go up as much as 7, but then it would go back to tied. Anyway, fortunately the last hot streak was Dallas', and they won by 8.

The 4th quarter was some really awful basketball on both ends. With 6:24 remaining, just 11 points had been scored between both teams that quarter.

Had Shai Gilgeous Alexander played, it would have been an easy win for OKC. But both teams sucked, and Dallas won. That's why I liked this pick. Looked like a tossup to me, yet I was getting +212 on Polymarket, and the price was +190 on the regular books.

I almost sold at halftime for +185 (instead of the +212 I had bet), but I was trying to squeeze out +188, and only sold off 13%. I regretted it, but then it landed in my favor that I didn't sell that final 87%.

Anyway... nice win.

[Dan Druff]

I want to say that NBA games are not automatically a lock when star players are out. Sometimes an unfamiliar lineup or playstyle can baffle opponents, and a team can temporarily do BETTER with their star off the floor for a game or two.

In this case, Alexander was crushing it so hard that I knew it was going to create a real hole in the Thunder without him. Plus they were on the road. Felt like a spot where +212 had value.

[some user]

Current odds today:

Detroit Lions superbowl winner +460

Detroit Lions to beat Kansas City Chiefs +1400

Current odds on fanduel:

Detroit Lions superbowl winner +360

Detroit Lions!!??!! superbowl?? huh?? What?? Oh yeah. FUCKING SUPERBOWL. Currently +320 on fanduel. BET YOUR HOUSE!!

DONT SLEEP YALL, +290 on fanduel

ASK FOR A $1,000 LOAN!!! SELL YOUR LAPTOP! SELL YOUR TURNTABLES!! SELL YOUR CAT'S FOOD!! BET BET BET WIN WIN WIN

+290 on fanduel

[Daly]

Current odds on fanduel:

Detroit Lions superbowl winner +360

Detroit Lions!!??!! superbowl?? huh?? What?? Oh yeah. FUCKING SUPERBOWL. Currently +320 on fanduel. BET YOUR HOUSE!!

DONT SLEEP YALL, +290 on fanduel

ASK FOR A $1,000 LOAN!!! SELL YOUR LAPTOP! SELL YOUR TURNTABLES!! SELL YOUR CAT'S FOOD!! BET BET BET WIN WIN WIN

+290 on fanduel

I don't question your result, I question the vehicle you are using to get there.

Take the $1000 and bet it on the ML at -500 vs Wash

Now take the 1200 and bet it on the ML vs Eagles at ~ -140

Now take the 2300 and bet it vs KC at PK

Final result bet 1000 to win 3600

+360 is better than +290

If you think they get the luckiest path posible where they are huge favorites the whole way maybe the +290 is desirable, but thats low probability.

GL. I like Det as well.

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Any thoughts/ props on KC Houston?

[Daly]

Any thoughts/ props on KC Houston?

Absolute Hail Marry play. If you up on the week and want to take a stab at a longshot.

Justin Watson First TD +6000

[Daly]

Any thoughts/ props on KC Houston?

For the rest of today (que the speech about NFL playoffs being sharp market)

Lions opened at 7.5…. And most of the money coming in on the dog. So of course the raised it from 7.5 to 9.5.

Obviously Vegas backing Det here.

Total has done nothing but go straight up. Action is close to even. Id take over here gun to head

Kc opened 7.5 and gone to 9.5. Vegas is scared and probably should be. Put me down for KC.

60% of $$ on over and they dropped it from 42.5 (key number) to 41.5. They want over money. Put me down for under here, or under 21 1h

[Daly]

Also - super duper sharp information here

[Dan Druff]

Pointless safety at the end, in an 11-point game when KC was running out the clock with 9s left, changed the spread result.

Final score 23-14 KC

Wow

Books (and Houston +9.5/9 bettors) got royally fucked

[Daly]

Pointless safety at the end, in an 11-point game when KC was running out the clock with 9s left, changed the spread result.

Final score 23-14 KC

Wow

Books (and Houston +9.5/9 bettors) got royally fucked

Got me at a new local. Numbers matter!

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
Ticket# Date Placed Risk Win
Jan 18
03:53 PM [388] CHIEFS (KC) -9½+100
[388] CHIEFS (KC) u41½-110
[390] LIONS (DET) -9½-105
[389] COMMANDERS (WAS) o55½-110

[1dollarboxcar]

i hope that dude still has some food for his cat....^^^^

[lol wow]

i just nailed cavs minn over 226 and was a beautiful 4th quarter sweat its why nba is such a nightmare

[rollinx420]

Pointless safety at the end, in an 11-point game when KC was running out the clock with 9s left, changed the spread result.

Final score 23-14 KC

Wow

Books (and Houston +9.5/9 bettors) got royally fucked

how exactly did houston bettors get fucked here?

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

Pointless safety at the end, in an 11-point game when KC was running out the clock with 9s left, changed the spread result.

Final score 23-14 KC

Wow

Books (and Houston +9.5/9 bettors) got royally fucked

how exactly did houston bettors get fucked here?

He meant KC -9 / -9.5 bettors

[BCR]

Had a $100 bonus bet. I always throw it on some multi leg parlay.

Fucking Warriors. Draymond played 3 minutes and Jordan Poole couldn’t miss and hit a 3 in final minute and they won by 8. Would have been a nice hit for a free bet. Everything else came through.



Parlay (5 Picks)Lost
Jan 18 • 2025 At 07:34:27 PM
Ticket ID: 8595831
Either team to score a Defensive Touchdown: Yes
WAS Commanders @ DET Lions
Point Spread: HOU Rockets -8.0
HOU Rockets @ POR Trail Blazers
Point Spread: GS Warriors -10.0
WAS Wizards @ GS Warriors
Points & Assists by the player: Mitchell, Donovan - Over 27.5
CLE Cavaliers @ MIN Timberwolves
Point Spread: IND Pacers -7.5
PHI 76ers @ IND Pacers
Odds:
+2791

[Daly]

Just in case some of you are interested…

I got nothing on either side today. Eagles took $$ but they moved to 6.5. Ravens jumped the fence with a fair amount of $$ on them…… i guess “gun to head” give me ravens.


Both totals seem attractive.

Eagles total moved down a point and a half on balanced buy. Id lean under 44.

Ravens total is 70% under 51.5 and hasn't moved an inch. They want under $$. Over for me.

Gl today

[country978]

I have an 8 pick parlay working and hit the 1st 4 yesterday. If I get the following to hit I win:

Buffalo +1 and under 51.5 and philly -6 and under 43.5

[Starbucks Spunk Bucket]

After watching the preview I also like the Philly under but don’t have the stones to do unders lol

A pal of mine who usually knows his shit is bullish on Ravens so I’ve done a Rams+7 and Ravens -1 double

[Dan Druff]

Okay, here's a game pretty much nobody is thinking about today:

Washington at Sacramento - Over 236.5