there is a god:
Nov 10, 2024 6:02 PM
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas CowboysU 21 -120 - 2nd Half
$54 $45
Nov 10, 2024 6:02 PM
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas CowboysU 21 -120 - 2nd Half
$116 $97
Nov 10, 2024 6:01 PM
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas CowboysU 21 -120 - 2nd Half
$132 $110
Nov 10, 2024 5:56 PM
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas CowboysU 20½ -110 - 2nd Half
$495 $450
Nov 10, 2024 5:55 PM
Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas CowboysU 20½ -110 - 2nd Half
$935 $850
Funny you mention NYJ because someone I know told me they loved Cardinals and I talked them out of it, noting both the sharps liking Jets and the fact that the line moved from -1.5 to +2 with most of the money/bets coming on AZ. Had all the hallmarks of a trap. I convinced them and they stayed away.Originally Posted by Tellafriend
I'm all over the lions at -3 from early in week and have broken a lot of rules and teased through 0 to get +3.5; LFG.
"sharps" are on Houston and tickets and bets are all over Detroit. but whatever, "sharps" were also all over NYJ.
staying public.
Then I looked like a fucking moron.
However I also talked them out of Falcons (and mentioned I bet the Saints moneyline), so it kinda broke even, though they did say they liked Cardinals best of the day.
Jets are complete shit, as is Rodgers. I made a lot fading Rodgers in 2022, and this year I really haven't been doing it, but I really should've been.
I'm all over the lions at -3 from early in week and have broken a lot of rules and teased through 0 to get +3.5; LFG.
"sharps" are on Houston and tickets and bets are all over Detroit. but whatever, "sharps" were also all over NYJ.
staying public.
For anyone with a Polymarket account, you can bet juice-free (and fee-free) on sports moneylines there. You're directly betting against other users, but in general it seems the line you get is similar to the juice-free line on the books.
So today's Saints +168 on the books was +178 for me on Poly. So it was nice getting the extra 10 points on that (very close) win.
Downside, of course, is that Polymarket is a hassle to get going, as you have to both set up a VPN/proxy to get in, AND fund it with USDC, which isn't easy to obtain without paying fees. But if any of you want USDC I can send you a little bit with no juice, in exchange for BTC or whatever.
anyone in here know how to fix the broken part of a degen brain that is stuck in woulda coulda shoulda land lol
like if i dont bet something and it wins, it feels like a loss to me
or is this just how every sports degen thinks (at least sometimes anyway) ???
Yeah, I’ve been there for 15 years. Maybe he’s just the age. He’s the age where I felt the same.
I must bet on it. Otherwise it’s unwatchable. Even with a bet, half the time I am watching or doing something else at the same time.
More than anything, it’s been putting your best athletes at DB and DE and just generally defense for a long time now has made it so no one can go deep or run the ball. Back in the day, QBs threw 20 times for 275 yards. Now you have a second to drop back and throw to a back or some short route. The good teams are teams who have a quick short passing game with an accurate QB who can complete 70% of these 6-8 yard throws.’
A few great DE’s like Pittsburgh has, you tune it to see this rookie, and he never has 3 seconds to throw. I picture Bradshaw back in the day having a sandwich waiting for guys to get open.
I don’t know the solve. Sometimes teams do smart things and the result is a less exciting sport. Basketball with all the 3s is the same. You’d get killed if you didn’t adjust, yet the adjustment makes it a less exciting game.
They needed the gambling worse than they ever knew
BCR you basically nailed it... outside of betting the NFL doesnt matter to me much at all aside from my hometown team (Vikings)
that said, this guy's little rant or whatever kinda made me think of that scene in Bad Santa where the kid is opening the already opened chocolate box and says "this one has a candy corn in it" lol and billy bob says "well they cant all be winners can they?"
obviously there are going to be shit games and shit teams with a quarterback that sucks, also defense supposedly wins championships so theres that... sometimes its all worth it though when you get a game like last night, so many twists and turns and such an epic comeback by the Lions. Lol squeaking two long fgs barely inside each upright
last thought is once and for all we need to do something about the fucking refs.... I'm talking like ZERO mistakes EVER... we have the technology and such to stop all the epic game changing fuckups that they make. They need to be held accountable for literally every mistake and told every fucking week constantly that they are NOT the stars of the show, the fucking players are!
If i lose a bet or the Vikings lose because they were outplayed fine... but if its because of old piece of shit men throwing yellow hankies on the field when there wasnt even a penalty or it was some ticky tack bullshit it just makes my blood boil.
/rant
ps... this could probably be moved to an entirely new thread tbh, doesnt really fit into the "wagering thread" per say
There are too many rules that protect players and promote offense. You cannot have all these rules that result in flags and a watchable product.
I’m not saying safety isn’t an issue. It is. Football has an insurmountable problem in the opinion someone who saw the unfettered and unsafe earlier version. If you are 35 you are on the cusp of the 2007 line of demarcation.
Speed & violence without penalties = NHL. Players safety is largely enforced by the players in the fashion baseball used to. Baseball safety rules have taken their toll too. Pitchers used to be enforcers.
With respect to the video, in fairness I haven’t watched a game this year so I can’t comment on whether competition is worse. I just accept the degenerate’s opinion as a data point
Back to wagering talk.
As an aside, I really think Daly, San, Druff and the other good handicappers here deserve a ton of credit for making me see things from the house side. I’m incredibly stubborn and I still don’t just take their picks and bet them like I should, but I do sometimes, and I definitely stay away from losers I normally would bet. China tried to talk sense onto me years ago but old habits and all that. I like picking the games.
Like I watch things Daly has suggested in the past and see the house needs Ole Miss and Bama. I didn’t bet Ole Miss, but I’m always on Georgia there and just stayed away. And I killed it on Bama. That’s totally to his credit and I deeply appreciate his and a few others insight who have long track records of success. I look at things I really like and see how it relates to the market. I liked Pittsburgh, and was happy when his guy said the market had moved to the point the casinos were a bit ambivalent on it before I bet them.
I haven’t expressed how much I appreciate him and others here for educating an old dog who is really resistant to it. I’m winning a lot and it’s mostly staying away from shit like Georgia type bets.
San has saved me from making a dozen bad baseball bets.
Tonight I like the Rams. Just gut. But I am checking a guy Daly suggested who said sharps are on both sides equal and the money is even. Ok. It’s my money and I’m going to gamble, but I’d stay away if they said the house needs Miami.
Rather simple shit really, but I like to think I can figure shit out always, but their input has really turned it from red to black by avoiding bad bets and I really wanted to thank them for that.
I must bet on it. Otherwise it’s unwatchable. Even with a bet, half the time I am watching or doing something else at the same time.
THIS x 1000.
worse, the flags always seem to come on game/drive changing plays and then always on offenses that happen every play, but they choose to enforce them on the game/drive changing ones. It's fucking maddening and makes trying to handicap this shit for an armature such as myself so frustrating.
Daly, how to the real sharps adjust for this, if at all?
any thoughts on tonite? line moved from 3 to 2 when they announced hill was playing
waiting on Daly tbh......
what a discrepancy in books, DK has ML Rams @ -142... Circa has -128... i got no skin in the game, just wanted to point this out...
The college game has also become not watchable. NIL, which now creates the transfer portal has ruined the game. You can see why Saban retired abruptly. You literally have high school kids in their Junior year making several millions from some booster just to commit. I don't know the answer to college football because the coaches are just as greedy. Look at the FSU coach, he is getting paid $10M a year now, and maybe will win two games this year, and probably the same next year. He does not give a shit. Jimbo Fisher walked with $80M from A&M and he does not give a shit either. And the washout college QBs, they make $5M and fail, but they are set for life if they play their cards right. Sports are just ruined. Even High School is broken, you get a 7' 2" center in basketball, he is commanding 7 figures a year or he just stops going to school and goes to Europe for a year to play for $3M, and the NBA does not give a shit. If it was not for gambling, the sports industry would collapse. I am extremely pissed about college sports though, it seemed like a sanctuary but its actually worse than pro sports because there are no contracts, you can just leave whenever you want for more money dangled by some booster who owns some car dealerships.
waiting on Daly tbh......
Sorry - night off tonight. Friends from out of town.
Any college basketball sharps?
DK pick6 has a 50% boost tomorrow cbb and I know nothing.
Shill me your picks please.
Edit: for anyone unfamiliar with DK P6, these are player props.
Hi Lew!!!
I haven’t seen it yet on DK. There is a whole “boost” subculture. Crazy Ninja Odds on discord and CNO adjacent discords get deep into the math using sharp books like Pinny to devig the EV for the boost. Usually, stuff like football and basketball that I don’t care about I just let the math win
The limits on these boosts vary like crazy. I often skip them if they are super small
I’ll check tomorrow
Crazy Ninja Mike just joined ProphetX. I’ll have to see if things have changed.
lol someone’s AI is combing this thread
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