Originally Posted by
ShawnFanningsLimpDick
One aspect of UK politics which may not be apparent to outsiders is that prime ministers are relatively defenceless when their own party turns on them. A prime minister isn't elected to the role exactly but has to demonstrate they can form a government by commanding support from a sufficient number of elected MPs. Normally PMs who win elections with large majorities are fairly immune from this fate and can easily face down internal critics. Starmer, however, has become so unpopular so rapidly that his own party is now seeing him as an election-losing liability.
Before "resigning" (getting sacked) last week the nominally loyal deputy leader Angela Rayner was trying to get support for new legislation to prevent city mayors from standing for Parliament. This was widely interpreted as an attempt to block the Mayor of London (Sadiq Khan) from being able to challenge Starmer for the leadership but this take is wrong (noone likes Sadiq Khan either). It was actually designed to block the current Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, who would be a formidable threat to Starmer in a leadership challenge. Word on the street is that a Manchester MP is about to step down for (genuine) health reasons forcing a bye-election where Burnham would be a shoo-in if he stands. Once an MP he can force a leadership challenge which he'd probably win. If he does become leader of the Labour Party he doesn't need to call a new general election, just showing he has enough support from the Labour MPs is sufficient for him to become PM.
Burnham is currently about 10-1 (+1000) to be the 'next British PM after Keir Starmer' and I think that's a good value bet.