Will the Fed be able to destroy employment/inflation with rate hikes?

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

---

Sleep deprivation at best. At worst, an amphetamine addiction or mental illness.

Just consider the sentence highlighted above and then ask yourself, do I agree with this person. This degree of ranting is Garrett level

The "they" referred to are the people elected to office.
I fail to see the motivation for a government of elected representatives working to crush the economy

And just like that the Fed is now saying it is "debating" the size of any future rate hikes now. Markets are up today as a result. It is like I predicted this or something....like 2 hours ago.

https://archive.ph/wO9k3

Quote:

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Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes

Some officials are signaling greater unease with big rate rises to fight inflation

Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.

“We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month.
Some officials have begun signaling their desire both to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy. They want to reduce the risk of causing an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Others have said it is too soon for those discussions because high inflation is proving to be more persistent and broad.

---

Hey you drunk drug addicted loser, shut your fucking mouth before you look even dumber than you already do on a daily basis.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

And just like that the Fed is now saying it is "debating" the size of any future rate hikes now. Markets are up today as a result. It is like I predicted this or something....like 2 hours ago.

https://archive.ph/wO9k3

Quote:

---

Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes

Some officials are signaling greater unease with big rate rises to fight inflation

Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December.

“We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month.
Some officials have begun signaling their desire both to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy. They want to reduce the risk of causing an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Others have said it is too soon for those discussions because high inflation is proving to be more persistent and broad.

---

Hey you drunk drug addicted loser, shut your fucking mouth before you look even dumber than you already do on a daily basis.

---

I can imagine being exposed on the basis of something you wrote is embarrassing. If I'm wrong please explain the following sentence.

"As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want"

Like they want. Who are referring to? It's that simple. Anything else you say is highly suspect


Let this be an example. An open forum allows for self expression but also scrutiny.
Maybe you think helicopters are following you but no agency would even spend the gas

Quote:

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Originally Posted by limitles

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

---

Sleep deprivation at best. At worst, an amphetamine addiction or mental illness.

Just consider the sentence highlighted above and then ask yourself, do I agree with this person. This degree of ranting is Garrett level

The "they" referred to are the people elected to office.
I fail to see the motivation for a government of elected representatives working to crush the economy

---

:lol2

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

---

Thank-you. Nothing really inaccurate and importantly no finger pointing at some agency working to crash the economy.

It's a shit show folks and it will always be.

Boris Johnson, comeback man of the millennium until the Donald's resurrection
'

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

---

I recently went back to work after having not worked since 2018. I've been driving for Lyft and Uber since late April this year. I'll be doing Amazon Flex also. Between Uber and Lyft I get a general idea which one is paying better week by week and that's the one I focus on for that week. Last week I worked almost exclusively for Uber and my hourly rate was $35.65. I haven't calculated this week yet because its not over but I usually end up well over $30 an hour every week.

When I start Amazon I expect the hourly to go down but also the miles on my car will also go down a lot so I'll have to see which of the three works best for me. Haven't done any deliveries except for auto parts with Lyft.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

---

Druff "low wage positions" are basically a thing of the past. I was in the Chik Fil A drive thru yesterday, big sign on the window STARTING at $17 an hour. That is 35k a year if you have a fucking pulse. The next step up is Amazon. They start base pay at $22 an hour with benefits and perks to make more. That is 45k a year. No skills needed. The Mexicans at Home Depot are now demanding $20 an hour, up from $15 pre pandemic. All this because.......they can't find people to work! And like you said customer service is still atrocious everywhere due to understaffing.

This is why rates have had no effect on the employment numbers. Thank God today they hinted about changing course and possibly holding their position in 2023. With all the debt they have on the books hell they can't afford to go to some crazy number.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."



There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

---

Druff "low wage positions" are basically a thing of the past. I was in the Chik Fil A drive thru yesterday, big sign on the window STARTING at $17 an hour. That is 35k a year if you have a fucking pulse. The next step up is Amazon. They start base pay at $22 an hour with benefits and perks to make more. That is 45k a year. No skills needed. The Mexicans at Home Depot are now demanding $20 an hour, up from $15 pre pandemic. All this because.......they can't find people to work! And like you said customer service is still atrocious everywhere due to understaffing.

This is why rates have had no effect on the employment numbers. Thank God today they hinted about changing course and possibly holding their position in 2023. With all the debt they have on the books hell they can't afford to go to some crazy number.

---

Questionable items. Fast food outlet posting employment opportunities is believable. Posting the hourly rate seems like a stretch but possible.

Next entry. "The Mexicans at Home Depot are now demanding $20 an hour" Understand that any handyman or contractor forced to line up outside Home Depot is not capable of demanding anything

Let's take this in context. You stated that there is a force committed to crashing the economy. Please explain

Also, if flipping burgers gets you seventeen bucks an hour
it's win win. Poverty and homelessness are dealt a fatal blow

two points:

1)

i think youre taking an extremely narrow-spectrum view of the landscape.

FX = everything is absolutely batshit and the BoJ is intervening and the pound is collapsing regardless and oh my god wtffff. the strength of the dollar is choking the life out of a severely vulnerable global economy and if we dont start syphoning liquidity up so the currency market can breath again, the dollar and all its pals tips over into a 1931 style depression and somehow russia/china/india/saudi arabia do not.

and not to mention we still have supply chain issues that are crippling home building, chip imports, so on.

2)

lotta people who want their tax breaks back or otherwise have beef with the current regime have their fingers on the scale, friend-o.

also to be clear the fed's 'we need to crush the economy and create unemployment' shtick sounds like cheerleading to me. i dont really take it at its word.

i also think if they spelled out the risks honestly / painted an honest picture of exactly how precarious the global financial / trade mesh is at this point, american society would collapse in earnest.

will mumbles blow out another set of aftermarket tweeters in his nissan cube while listening to alvin and the chipmunks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

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I dunno if its the Canary in the coal mine exactly but theres been massive expansion of construction here in AZ all over the valley but now housing inventory as far as housing on the market has now doubled recently and the avg time from listing to sale used to be days its now at minimum weeks on avg sometimes longer. Also Refis are dying on the vine as nobody wants to refi when rates are 6-7% now vs 1/2 that a year ago roughly. The only saving grace on that side here is theres still a flow from California eastward to AZ which is keeping it from getting worse.. Alot of cash sales going on since folks can pay cash if theyre moving from CA often have enough equity having sold their smaller house for something larger which will likely avoid a major crash like 2008 here but its definitely not the rosy sellers market it was early this year and last year more so.

The United States printed sooo much Paper money, well Trump did and that is using what is called Monetary Policy

To fix a Problem which then was Covid a Flu virus cmon man this is insane to lose a decade of Value in Dollars over a flu virus cmon unreal. Creating more paper dollar's, so Supply is the problem now Donal Trump didnt care he pumped the American Economy with so much paper printed money we all lost now, and will pay for it in Rising Costs, which we have now with gross Infaltion atm, well thank Trumptard. The problem is youll have to pay for that later on, which we are now in Inflation. Rising costs everywhere everyday, food, gas, all the every day things getting more expensive mean the normal every day person has less to live with. Rising Inflation never hurts the Super Elite or rich, they can sustain the bad Variance if Life was a poker Game, so theyre Fortunate the few who are. The rest of us down in normal life world, rising Costs is because Donald Trump printed and gave out 2x $1200 Covid Relief Checks, for a Flu Virus printed 10 Trillion dollars, over the Flu Virus. Now wwhat really happened was BIggggg Government level and Wall St is Pharmaceutical and certain Avenues benefitted but not the American people or there Dollar, printing money devalues ever existing dollar just more and more, anyway

No Strat Chat in Gen Chat i know oops sorry

(Back to stupid now..)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

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:wrong

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

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Real estate doesn't typically crash. It did that one and only time. Most people don't realize that even though it crashed in 08/09, the market didn't actually bottom until late 2012. Real estate is usually a slow burn. Prices dropping 0.5% a month for several years. You may think your house has appreciated 9% this year. Put it on the market and find out. Most areas simply have no buyers. Mortgage apps are multi decade lows. Sentiment is lowest since GFC. You have the combination of rates doubling in a short time and the reverse wealth effect with everyone's portfolios down 25% regardless of stocks or bonds, something that has never happened. So anyone who has a 3% mortgage isn't selling even if they wanted to. Most people can't afford to buy a house that the person with a 3% mortgage would even put on the market. So we essentially have a stagnant market right now. Not many sellers. Hardly any buyers. Eventually the market will correct enough where it will reach equillibrium but that won't be until rates are high for a good year or so. And with inflation this high, rates are staying high. FED will pause at some point but the days of fed funds rate at 0% are gone. Easy money is dead. I could see where the FED will eventually drop rates to 2% again with mortgage rates around 5% as a baseline. I'd also expect them to raise their inflation targets to 3-4% instead of the 2% they are fixated on.

Let's think about it like this. The FED pivots and decides to lower rates. What happens? Dollar falls, market rallies hard especially growth for a short time. Commodities explode higher which will cause inflation to make new highs and the market will crash unlike anything you've ever seen before.

Here's what needs to happen. FED continues to raise rates. Cause the recession we're already in but won't admit. Mass layoffs follow. Unemployment goes up bigly. People get evicted/foreclosed. Housing bubble now solved. People either can't afford to or are afraid to spend money. Inflation problem solved. Finally, the FED is able to lower rates to a more reasonable level which will encourage businesses to borrow money to grow/hire and the new cycle begins. FED pivots too soon and we're fucked for years. The let the recession happen then short term pain for long term gain. They should have begun this entire process a year earlier and we'd never be in this position. Houses wouldn't have gone up 100% in two years. Crypto would never has gone full retard and the stock market sure as fuck wouldn't have gotten anywhere near where it did. FED induced this everything bubble. Inflated it. And now has to pop it.

Also, two major things need to happen. China needs to get rid of this zero covid nightmare and Ukraine war needs to end. Give Russia Crimea and those two massively pro Russia areas they want and call it a day. This will eliminate the food crisis going on as well as Europe's energy disaster. Without those two things happening things aren't looking great. I've been buying stocks in small increments. The shit I'm buying has gotten to 20 year lows. We're talking A rated balance sheet 50 year dividend growing companies. Still sitting on loads of cash though. Don't want to be for much longer.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/s...n2TV9bZv8xZAyw

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

The labor market is a very interesting subject in 2022, and I get questions about it all the time (despite not being an expert in this field, by any means).

The conversation always goes like something this:

Me: "Boy, customer service sucks these days. Nobody can fire bad employees because it's impossible to replace them, plus businesses everywhere are short-staffed, so you generally have to just tolerate shit service nowadays. I want 2019 back."

Friend: "Yeah but why is everything so short staffed? Why don't people need to work now? Those stimulus checks stopped a long time ago."


There's not a simple answer to this. At first, it was obvious. People had no desire to return to low or semi-low paying jobs if the government was supporting them. But now that this has stopped, why aren't we seeing a rush back to these jobs? How can these same people support themselves in 2022 without working, if they had to work to be viable in 2019?

My best guess: Savings and the gig economy.

Let's go over the timeline of events.

2020: COVID hits, gubbmint shuts down most businesses. People start getting checks, in order to compensate for the job they can't go to anymore. With little to do (and declining costs, such as money not spent on driving, socializing, vacationing, and dining out), suddenly American savings build up like they hadn't in a very long time. In addition, many jurisdictions do not allow eviction for nonpayment of rent, so many people simply bank their money otherwise earmarked for rent, with plans to bounce to another apartment/house when the eviction moratorium ends.

2021: Vaccines are available, places rapidly are opening back up, and people are eager to get out and do things. Businesses are almost all reopened and jobs are more plentiful than ever. However, with money still rolling in from the gubbmint (huge mistake), people have no incentive to go back to these jobs. They also start to look to supplement the gubbmit payments by taking little gig jobs, which are far easier, more flexible, and more pleasant than their shit low-wage jobs they had to attend on a rigid full day schedule.

2022: The gubbmint money has stopped for awhile, and jobs are still plentiful, with the worker shortage remaining. However, many who used to hold these jobs in 2019 have already experienced the gig economy, and they don't want to go back to a rigid job. In addition, they are still holding onto their savings from 2020/2021, so desperation time hasn't set in. They've been used to not working for over 2 years, and it just seems so unpleasant to go back to a shit job 5 days per week. Instead, they continue driving for Uber/Lyft/Doordash/whatever, or taking jobs where they can work from home (which greatly increased in number during 2020 out of necessity, and now those positions remain.)

Result: It is now quite tough to find workers willing to show up and toil for 8 hours per day at a low-wage position.

This unfortunately has wreaked havoc upon the economy in several ways, and also caused total shit customer service everywhere. Even with my low tolerance for shit service, I have found myself holding back and not complaining when it appears it's a result of short staffing, and not just employees being shitty without their boss' knowledge.

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I am not sure the effect of the phenomenon you are describing on inflation/depression, but I do think you are describing a real thing. I am a former member of the W2 full time workforce that switched to completely flexible 1099 gig work in 2020, and hope to never go back. However, my wife has a solid full time job with health insurance, and I run a family business and do gig work on the side. I couldn't imagine trying to make this work if my gig work was paying the mortgage, but I see plenty of people doing it. So they must be making it work.

I have periodically peaked at job board apps and the salaries in the industry I previously worked in actually haven't gone up very much, if at all. Certainly not enough to justify me going back. Honestly, the salaries they are offering for experienced jobs requiring bachelor degrees are basically the same as fast food managers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Pooh

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NaturalBornHustler

So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.

---

Real estate doesn't typically crash. It did that one and only time. Most people don't realize that even though it crashed in 08/09, the market didn't actually bottom until late 2012. Real estate is usually a slow burn. Prices dropping 0.5% a month for several years. You may think your house has appreciated 9% this year. Put it on the market and find out. Most areas simply have no buyers. Mortgage apps are multi decade lows. Sentiment is lowest since GFC. You have the combination of rates doubling in a short time and the reverse wealth effect with everyone's portfolios down 25% regardless of stocks or bonds, something that has never happened. So anyone who has a 3% mortgage isn't selling even if they wanted to. Most people can't afford to buy a house that the person with a 3% mortgage would even put on the market. So we essentially have a stagnant market right now. Not many sellers. Hardly any buyers. Eventually the market will correct enough where it will reach equillibrium but that won't be until rates are high for a good year or so. And with inflation this high, rates are staying high. FED will pause at some point but the days of fed funds rate at 0% are gone. Easy money is dead. I could see where the FED will eventually drop rates to 2% again with mortgage rates around 5% as a baseline. I'd also expect them to raise their inflation targets to 3-4% instead of the 2% they are fixated on.

Let's think about it like this. The FED pivots and decides to lower rates. What happens? Dollar falls, market rallies hard especially growth for a short time. Commodities explode higher which will cause inflation to make new highs and the market will crash unlike anything you've ever seen before.

Here's what needs to happen. FED continues to raise rates. Cause the recession we're already in but won't admit. Mass layoffs follow. Unemployment goes up bigly. People get evicted/foreclosed. Housing bubble now solved. People either can't afford to or are afraid to spend money. Inflation problem solved. Finally, the FED is able to lower rates to a more reasonable level which will encourage businesses to borrow money to grow/hire and the new cycle begins. FED pivots too soon and we're fucked for years. The let the recession happen then short term pain for long term gain. They should have begun this entire process a year earlier and we'd never be in this position. Houses wouldn't have gone up 100% in two years. Crypto would never has gone full retard and the stock market sure as fuck wouldn't have gotten anywhere near where it did. FED induced this everything bubble. Inflated it. And now has to pop it.

Also, two major things need to happen. China needs to get rid of this zero covid nightmare and Ukraine war needs to end. Give Russia Crimea and those two massively pro Russia areas they want and call it a day. This will eliminate the food crisis going on as well as Europe's energy disaster. Without those two things happening things aren't looking great. I've been buying stocks in small increments. The shit I'm buying has gotten to 20 year lows. We're talking A rated balance sheet 50 year dividend growing companies. Still sitting on loads of cash though. Don't want to be for much longer.

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We are very early game. You nail this understanding with your observation regarding housing.

Anecdotal suburban Walmart stories hint at the global predicament? Everything resolves in months? Inflation and the economic unwinding/reset will wax and wane for years to come. Largely because central planning will fight the natural economic cycle.

You ARE the energy guy though thus I am disappointed by your simplistic thoughts regarding the world’s possible return to energy normalcy. Even a Ukraine resolution (not likely under current leadership) would be just a beginning.

Nuclear is getting turned back on, that’s a slow start . Nordstream 1 will take years to repair. I am waiting for the next attack on energy, myself. Can you imagine news of the Nordstream culprit getting leaked… holy shit

Dial in some Doomberg sub stack for your energy gambling pleasure.