Originally Posted by
Tellafriend
So what specifically do you suggest we buy?
caveat, not an investment advisor and you could get fucked on this one...if you had a little money burning a hole in your pocket and had availability to buy futures, i'd wait for a little pullback in SEP futures to somewhere in the 440-445 range or DEC in the 450-455 range with a stop 20 cents lower...i sold puts before the last USDA report and those have gone right in my favor...waiting for that pullback to sell some more...
honestly at this point i don't know if a big supply number (aka the size of the crop) can happen...the supply/demand of corn is gonna have to be balanced by demand destruction so i believe we're gonna have to find a price where that happens...errrrrrrrrrrbody likes round numbers so im guessing that happens somewhere in the $5+ range...
think this shit could hurt businesses that derive a nice chunk of their revenues from fertilizer...lotta farmers have a lotta acres under water and aint gonna plant 'em so they're not gonna need to fertilize fields this year...
just know that this trade comes with some risks...mother nature can be a fickle lady...there's a decent probability is that this is gonna be a rough crop since it has started off way behind (tough to play catch up with mother nature) and price is gonna have to get to a point where the ethanol guys, hog/cow guys, and other countries are like 'fuck this' and stop buying, but think at this point we still have a ways to go...
EDIT: and if you do this don't fucking get greedy thinking price is gonna go up and up and up and up...i was on a grains desk for 2 years and my idiot boss thought that corn was gonna go to like $10/bushel (think this woulda been in like mid 2010) and positioned himself for that fact...well at a certain price those guys mentioned above aint gonna buy corn...they'll cull hurds, stop crushing corn for ethanol, or foreign entities will just stop buying...this is where you thank mother nature for the cool/wet spring and for the 30-40 cents a bushel and move on...