Blatant Gambling Scammer Christopher Mitchell (YouTube/Baccarat/Roulette/Sportsbetting)

[Dan Druff]

This video really shows how this scam can work. Either William is the best actor I’ve never heard about or he is a guy who believed in Christopher Mitchell and just experienced the absolute terror of the Martingale System. If you listen closely to William talk you can see the relief he has that he never lost that 5th or 6th hand in a row.

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Like Druff alluded to on this weeks PFA radio if you have 10 K and absolutely need to make a grand or so pronto than surviving a martingale session may do the trick in that short run example & that is exactly what it seems to do in this video with William which is done right before the casino shutdown. It appears that martingale held up in the very short term and in this case for William’s sake I’m glad it did as he seems like a decent guy just desperate & naive.

If Mitchell busts Williams bankroll, William is such a believer at this point that when he is told this was just “incredible bad luck” that “never happens.” he’s most likely just going to choose to believe it if anything just to make himself feel like he wasn’t scammed. That’s a tough thing to accept. To blame it on just a shitty run of cards is much easier thing to accept.

The reason I’m very certain my read into most of this video being real is not only from a William’s candor but the numbers are much more realistic. Starting at a betting unit of $100 a goal of a grand or so before that big losing streak comes is reasonable. I also know for instance when they say that at the Gold Coast they could only make a few hundred because of the tighter bet spread I know that is true. There is no high limit area in that Boyd Property.

The fact that I believe this video to be mostly real is alarming. Think pretty much all of us on this forum know that the martingale system would only work in the long run if I was given unlimited credit & an unlimited max bet. I could go double or nothing until the end of time & be a zillionaire by now. However, this isn’t so easy to communicate to the uninitiated.

This video pisses me off. Yes, I agree that William isn't acting. He's just a naive older guy (he says he's 60, which I believe) who is unfortunately not knowledgeable enough about gambling to see through Christopher's BS.

Christopher brags that "more than half of the people contacting me about coaching are over the age of 60."

I believe him. It's probably way more than half. And that's sad. This means he's ripping off older people who probably don't have the ability to earn the money back, and probably think this is a way to assure a more comfortable retirement. He's clearly telling everyone about the older people contacting him because he wants to make other older people comfortable. Christopher realizes that he's most likely to run into marks in that age group. Scammers love the elderly and the almost-elderly.

[Dustin Mc]

This video really shows how this scam can work. Either William is the best actor I’ve never heard about or he is a guy who believed in Christopher Mitchell and just experienced the absolute terror of the Martingale System. If you listen closely to William talk you can see the relief he has that he never lost that 5th or 6th hand in a row.

.
.

Like Druff alluded to on this weeks PFA radio if you have 10 K and absolutely need to make a grand or so pronto than surviving a martingale session may do the trick in that short run example & that is exactly what it seems to do in this video with William which is done right before the casino shutdown. It appears that martingale held up in the very short term and in this case for William’s sake I’m glad it did as he seems like a decent guy just desperate & naive.

If Mitchell busts Williams bankroll, William is such a believer at this point that when he is told this was just “incredible bad luck” that “never happens.” he’s most likely just going to choose to believe it if anything just to make himself feel like he wasn’t scammed. That’s a tough thing to accept. To blame it on just a shitty run of cards is much easier thing to accept.

The reason I’m very certain my read into most of this video being real is not only from a William’s candor but the numbers are much more realistic. Starting at a betting unit of $100 a goal of a grand or so before that big losing streak comes is reasonable. I also know for instance when they say that at the Gold Coast they could only make a few hundred because of the tighter bet spread I know that is true. There is no high limit area in that Boyd Property.

The fact that I believe this video to be mostly real is alarming. Think pretty much all of us on this forum know that the martingale system would only work in the long run if I was given unlimited credit & an unlimited max bet. I could go double or nothing until the end of time & be a zillionaire by now. However, this isn’t so easy to communicate to the uninitiated.

This video pisses me off. Yes, I agree that William isn't acting. He's just a naive older guy (he says he's 60, which I believe) who is unfortunately not knowledgeable enough about gambling to see through Christopher's BS.

Christopher brags that "more than half of the people contacting me about coaching are over the age of 60."

I believe him. It's probably way more than half. And that's sad. This means he's ripping off older people who probably don't have the ability to earn the money back, and probably think this is a way to assure a more comfortable retirement. He's clearly telling everyone about the older people contacting him because he wants to make other older people comfortable. Christopher realizes that he's most likely to run into marks in that age group. Scammers love the elderly and the almost-elderly.

Yea, my videos pointed that out about scamming elderly..... I heard you say you believe his money is real?..... hell no its not real, if it was he wouldve proved it, shut everyone up and made believers out of everyone..... my newest video touched on that....i'm going to bury this mofo's scam..... hes making installment payments to state of ohio for back taxes on his mlm scam.....hes also recently defaulted on a credit card....i have the best researchers as well as people who know him emailing me info.....i'm desparately trying to bait him into threatening me so I can kick the ever living shit out of him if/when I see him in person.... him and his wife are pure trash

[Dustin Mc]

This video really shows how this scam can work. Either William is the best actor I’ve never heard about or he is a guy who believed in Christopher Mitchell and just experienced the absolute terror of the Martingale System. If you listen closely to William talk you can see the relief he has that he never lost that 5th or 6th hand in a row.

.
.

Like Druff alluded to on this weeks PFA radio if you have 10 K and absolutely need to make a grand or so pronto than surviving a martingale session may do the trick in that short run example & that is exactly what it seems to do in this video with William which is done right before the casino shutdown. It appears that martingale held up in the very short term and in this case for William’s sake I’m glad it did as he seems like a decent guy just desperate & naive.

If Mitchell busts Williams bankroll, William is such a believer at this point that when he is told this was just “incredible bad luck” that “never happens.” he’s most likely just going to choose to believe it if anything just to make himself feel like he wasn’t scammed. That’s a tough thing to accept. To blame it on just a shitty run of cards is much easier thing to accept.

The reason I’m very certain my read into most of this video being real is not only from a William’s candor but the numbers are much more realistic. Starting at a betting unit of $100 a goal of a grand or so before that big losing streak comes is reasonable. I also know for instance when they say that at the Gold Coast they could only make a few hundred because of the tighter bet spread I know that is true. There is no high limit area in that Boyd Property.

The fact that I believe this video to be mostly real is alarming. Think pretty much all of us on this forum know that the martingale system would only work in the long run if I was given unlimited credit & an unlimited max bet. I could go double or nothing until the end of time & be a zillionaire by now. However, this isn’t so easy to communicate to the uninitiated.

This video pisses me off. Yes, I agree that William isn't acting. He's just a naive older guy (he says he's 60, which I believe) who is unfortunately not knowledgeable enough about gambling to see through Christopher's BS.

Christopher brags that "more than half of the people contacting me about coaching are over the age of 60."

I believe him. It's probably way more than half. And that's sad. This means he's ripping off older people who probably don't have the ability to earn the money back, and probably think this is a way to assure a more comfortable retirement. He's clearly telling everyone about the older people contacting him because he wants to make other older people comfortable. Christopher realizes that he's most likely to run into marks in that age group. Scammers love the elderly and the almost-elderly.

[Dan Druff]

Thanks for the post of my show clip.

I see people are commenting already (thankfully all positive!)

I'm sure Christopher will listen soon. I look forward to his reaction!

[The Shrink]

This video really shows how this scam can work. Either William is the best actor I’ve never heard about or he is a guy who believed in Christopher Mitchell and just experienced the absolute terror of the Martingale System. If you listen closely to William talk you can see the relief he has that he never lost that 5th or 6th hand in a row.

Thanks for sharing this video with your thoughts. Totally agree. It's genuine. William looks desperate and scared. He has seen some shit throughout that day. Scamming a vulnerable older person is despicable. The fucked up thing is that William's anxiety is palpable in these clips and if I were trying to promote my gambling coaching scam, I would watch the clips and realize that it's a terrible advertisement. No way I'd post this video. Who would want to pay to have William's experience? Fuck that.

[JeffDime]

I’m glad we agree Shrink. BTW now that I have passed the 50th day of self quarantine I will post my thoughts on The Trooper & other vloggers at some point shortly on the forum. Hopefully at least you will read it.

I think it’s safe to say that CM has heard Druff’s take by now as he seems to have really been restrained the last few days. Maybe he’s refining his system before he gives it to Druff to run the billion hand simulation with it.

The only development has been the inevitable launch of his merch store. I can’t tell if he’s a worse conman or clothes designer. The WSOP probable cancellation this year has sadly snuffed out most of our hopes of getting a coveted PFA hat and I’m a afraid a “Beast Mode Baccarat T-Shirt” just doesn’t compare. In all honesty this has got to be the worst merch store I have ever seen. I don’t see how even his fans can find any of this garbage appealing.


http://sl75mitchell.wixsite.com/changeyourlife

I’m taking two silver linings for today.

1. At least Christopher Mitchell has shown me if I can type up 70 pages or so I can put it on Amazon as a “kindle only” purchase, photo-shop some shitty fake cover as if it was a real book & then proudly call myself an author.

2. It’s clear on YouTube that the response to Druff’s take on CM & Druff’s broadcasting style in general has been very positive. I think that will translate to more listeners to PFA radio & that’s great. Druff’s been working extra hard with the content especially during this quarantine. When you think he only knew about the Mitchell stuff for less than a week & was able to pick him a part bit by bit it’s all that more impressive. Not to mention the hours & hours of additional content he provides.

[OldHoster]

1. At least Christopher Mitchell has shown me if I can type up 70 pages or so I can put it on Amazon as a “kindle only” purchase, photo-shop some shitty fake cover as if it was a real book & then proudly call myself an author.

Are you sure it wasn't just voice to text? Google's voice to text note taking is very good and you can speak a lot of pages quickly.

[Dan Druff]

If you watch the William video, there's something really fishy, too.

Notice that the first half of the video features Christopher proclaiming all of these easy wins in various Vegas casinos (usually claiming it took 10-15 minutes each to accomplish), and zero losses.

In fact, they don't chronicle a loss in the entire video. The only "challenge" referred to is finding casinos still open, as they're trying to avoid the rapid coronavirus closures.

Yet at the end of the video, suddenly Christopher isn't claiming that William won any particular amount, only that he "won money". If they effortlessly won every session (or even most sessions), we'd be hearing about the thousands of dollars William won, even if it were something relatively modest like $4,000.

I wonder if they lost, but he convinced William to say they won, and he blamed it on the coronavirus closures interfering with being able to do what they were supposed to do.

That might be why Christopher repeatedly promised William that he'd get another session for free. If William had walked away with a healthy profit, Christopher wouldn't have done this, and instead would simply be trumpeting their success in the face of all odds.

Even if William did squeak out a small win, clearly the losing sessions were omitted from the video (no surprise).

[Dan Druff]

New video dropped on the day I did radio! I wish I had this one for the show! I hadn't seen it until today.

[Dan Druff]

Here's an interesting comment from Rick Lee on the video Kevin Davis posted on the Youtube Scam Exposers of PFA Radio:

His money is real cause I saw it & we went into casino to play. He has a lot ppl pay him $750! But he don’t win all the times like he tell!!
His bac system is simple:
He bet banker 90% of the times & use Martingale when he lose. Then hope & pray a banker streak will come. Then win $500-$1k per table. He use aggressive martingale to win $1-2k in 15-30 min. But he have lost $30-$36k in 15-30 min. also! I was there & 2 other ppl(frnds) was there too to witness it!
Also, I didn’t pay him $2500 when I was w/ him! I paid $1k & if he make me $10k then I have to pay another $1500. But in Biloxi we all lost a lot $ & he didn’t collect $! He lost $36k & I lost $15k in 20 min.

Then some people attacked Rick for previously making a video validating Christopher. I'd love to see that video, but I can't find it.

Anyway, while I respect what Kevin Davis is doing, I think he's incorrect about the money. A lot of Vegas gambling system scammers always appear cash rich, so as to give validation to their con. Sometimes the cash isn't even theirs. But they have cash on hand so the mark thinks, "This guy wouldn't be scamming me for $2500! He is holding $50k in cash right now!"

From Rick's story, it looks like Christopher is actually drinking his own Kool-Aid, or at the very least is drinking it so others will drink it with him. Clearly he knows his system doesn't really work, or he'd simply be using it to make millions, instead of hawking it on the internet. But it's possible he thinks that it's worth doing because of the extra boost he gets from the people who either pay him or agree to give him 50% of profits.

If he busts his roll, as he might have in that situation described by Rick, he might scam his way back into a bankroll before seeing students again, or making an excuse why he can't play on that particular day.

He also might be borrowing his way into action, given the legion of dopes who believe in him. If you think about Martingale, it works most of the time to win a small or moderate profit, but decimates you every once in awhile, and thus is -EV with a high risk of ruin. This means Christopher and his students walk away profitable in most sessions, but get absolutely destroyed when they don't (William might have been an exception, because the casinos closed before they could complete what they were trying to do, so it could have ended up a small loss.)

Anyway, let's say Christopher's students walk away with a 4-figure profit 80% of the time, but take a devastating 5-figure loss 20% of the time (I'm just making up numbers). The 80% who win might be willing to give him "short term loans" whenever he busts out of action. I'm guessing here, of course, but my point is that you can't conclude that the $50k he's holding is fake, because it may very well not be his, and it may very well be borrowed.

[duped_samaritan]

His money is real cause I saw it & we went into casino to play. He has a lot ppl pay him $750! But he don’t win all the times like he tell!!
His bac system is simple:
He bet banker 90% of the times & use Martingale when he lose. Then hope & pray a banker streak will come. Then win $500-$1k per table. He use aggressive martingale to win $1-2k in 15-30 min. But he have lost $30-$36k in 15-30 min. also! I was there & 2 other ppl(frnds) was there too to witness it!
Also, I didn’t pay him $2500 when I was w/ him! I paid $1k & if he make me $10k then I have to pay another $1500. But in Biloxi we all lost a lot $ & he didn’t collect $! He lost $36k & I lost $15k in 20 min.

Reminds me of JEFFREY BRETT MUNCY.

[Dan Druff]

Here's Rick Lee (back in Feb 2020), before they hit hard times in Biloxi:





This was the first time he got the idea to require students to allow him to video them, so he could only post the winning sessions.

[JeffDime]

I knew I had discovered a rabbit hole with this Christopher Mitchell but now it feels like another dimension. Thank God I can’t leave the house because under normal circumstances if I watched this much YouTube I would feel awful about myself. It’s a pandemic & I am doing the right thing staying home so luckily I can rationalize this to myself.

First off a Druff I am pretty much in lock step with your thoughts expressed on your recent posts. The money is indeed real in my humble opinion. I remember right before the pandemic I was taking some money out of the bank & while I was speaking to the Teller she was saying she wasn’t able to wear gloves because the biggest tell if money is real or not is the texture. They can make counterfeit bills that look just like the real thing but to get anywhere close to the texture is almost impossible. When Mitchell fans out the money in some of the closeups if you look closely you can see a thickness to the bills & unique markings on many of them.

However, as Druff says the fact that he has 30K or more is irrelevant to whether he is beating the casinos. I am not proud of it but I’ve played in basically every high limit room on the strip. I’ve stayed in a Mirage Penthouse room like with the video with Rick. I know Caesars Palace typically has a $200 min/10K max and Bellagio Club Prive has a $300 min.

Why wouldn’t the casinos be comping Christopher Mitchell suites? A good pit boss will communicate that Mitchell is Martingale Betting & it would be nice for him to be in that particular casino when that inevitable big loss comes. It’s not a matter of if those huge losses occur just a function of when. Seems like this happened to Rick in Biloxi. All those comped suites in Vegas & the big loss comes in freakin Mississippi...go figure.

So Christopher Mitchell says when the Martingale system fails it’s on you. You gave into fear. Well for one thing it sure would be easier for me to be fearless if I was Martingale betting with some other poor shlubs bankroll & not mine. It’s not fear Mr. Mitchell, it’s called the table maximum and/or the bankroll one is using succumbing to the Martingale system.

Martingale is kind of like “Bridge Jumping” in horse racing. The minimum return on a bet to show is $2.10 for a $2.00 dollar bet (5% profit). Every once and a while a big favorite is running and someone will dump say 100K on the horse to run third or better(to show). This will happen more than not if the “Bridge Jumper” picks decent spots like when the horse outclasses the field & the field is relatively short. If the “Bridge Jumper” does this 20 times he is basically break even if just 1 single horse fails to show. You can tack on 6 figure losses for every other horse that fails to show out of that 20.

It’s fitting that Mitchell brings Rick to his suite at the Mirage because that’s what each & every smallish win you book using the system is...A Mirage. The only thing real is the “commission” that Mitchell takes out if your winnings if you’re lucky enough to not lose your bankroll in the blink of an eye. Betting using the Martingale system is small wins & instant gratification with the promise of Maximum Punishment some point down the line. With his students I’m sure it’s initially shock when they go busto. If your betting EZ Baccarat (Meaning your not touching, squeezing & essentially mutilating the cards which is half the fun of playing high limit baccarat in my humble opinion) which I’m pretty sure Mitchell is playing these dealers deal hands fast. Maybe a couple minutes you go from a slight winner to losing it all in a 6 or 7 hand losing streak.

I agree there is so much to unpack in that William episode. Especially the fact that real numbers are not quoted at the end on that Cosmo Balcony. I have a feeling they had a prolonged talk on that Balcony & Christopher Mitchell did his best to spin the situation & blame it on the corona virus. Conman are opportunists & seems like the casinos shutting down provided him that opportunity. Like a good Tarantino movie every time you watch it you discover something else.

Funny thing is after I watched Rick’s episode I’m now completely convinced of Mitchell’s exit strategy. Most of the day they walk from casino to casino in a line basically & then they take an Uber to the Gold Coast. Which is off the strip next to the Rio and has no high limit room & small bet spreads. Mitchell probably pretends he didn’t know that but says it’s been a long day & were off the strip so think it’s time to call it a night. This guy is so transparent but I’m doing all I can to empathize with his victims.

Rick seems like a high roller who has done his share of gambling. I think it would be useful if he were willing to come on the show & speak about his experiences if he is willing.

[Dustin Mc]

Anyway, while I respect what Kevin Davis is doing, I think he's incorrect about the money. A lot of Vegas gambling system scammers always appear cash rich, so as to give validation to their con. Sometimes the cash isn't even theirs. But they have cash on hand so the mark thinks, "This guy wouldn't be scamming me for $2500! He is holding $50k in cash right now!

Well I'd be willing to bet my right arm the majority of his 50K stack is FAKE and sign contract today. This isn't my first rodeo with youtube scammer and CM is following EXACT same playbook that morgenstern created. I offered him a 50K challenge if he passed lie detector he'd get entire amount but when he failed, I'd legally be allowed to beat the ever living shit out of him. He didn't accept.

Then I proposed the challenge that I'd terminate my channel and fully endorse him if he showed the entire stack. What does he do? acknowledges the challenge, creates a 1 hour production about it and proceeds to only show 10% of stack. Then 3 days later, makes a video lying as usual, this time saying he showed entire stack.

That alone should raise serious doubt as my latest video explained. If all that stack was real and theres a YT channel calling you out? he would've proven it's real, as to destroy my entire credibility and elevate his. That hasn't or will ever happen, CAUSE IT'S NOT ALL REAL! As my guys and I saw markings on some of the bills indicative to what you'd see from the counterfeit bills China sells. It's not illegal over there as it is here on how those bills look. He even took the time to lay out bills on his table but didnt give me middle finger by taking a counterfeit to to them. I guarantee it's killing him he can't prove it's all real

You're obviously entitled to your opinions, but giving someone way to much credit, whose been caught in numerous lies, including swearing on bible holding up real looking prop money you can buy for $20 in China? means the credibility & validity of those opinions aren't that educated considering the circumstances

He also doesn't have any friends, let alone ones who'd trust him to hold 50K

[JeffDime]

Anyway, while I respect what Kevin Davis is doing, I think he's incorrect about the money. A lot of Vegas gambling system scammers always appear cash rich, so as to give validation to their con. Sometimes the cash isn't even theirs. But they have cash on hand so the mark thinks, "This guy wouldn't be scamming me for $2500! He is holding $50k in cash right now!

Well I'd be willing to bet my right arm the majority of his 50K stack is FAKE and sign contract today. This isn't my first rodeo with youtube scammer and CM is following EXACT same playbook that morgenstern created. I offered him a 50K challenge if he passed lie detector he'd get entire amount but when he failed, I'd legally be allowed to beat the ever living shit out of him. He didn't accept.

Then I proposed the challenge that I'd terminate my channel and fully endorse him if he showed the entire stack. What does he do? acknowledges the challenge, creates a 1 hour production about it and proceeds to only show 10% of stack. Then 3 days later, makes a video lying as usual, this time saying he showed entire stack.

That alone should raise serious doubt as my latest video explained. If all that stack was real and theres a YT channel calling you out? he would've proven it's real, as to destroy my entire credibility and elevate his. That hasn't or will ever happen, CAUSE IT'S NOT ALL REAL! As my guys and I saw markings on some of the bills indicative to what you'd see from the counterfeit bills China sells. It's not illegal over there as it is here on how those bills look. He even took the time to lay out bills on his table but didnt give me middle finger by taking a counterfeit to to them. I guarantee it's killing him he can't prove it's all real

You're obviously entitled to your opinions, but giving someone way to much credit, whose been caught in numerous lies, including swearing on bible holding up real looking prop money you can buy for $20 in China? means the credibility & validity of those opinions aren't that educated considering the circumstances

He also doesn't have any friends, let alone ones who'd trust him to hold 50K

Dustin I don’t want to speak for Druff but this is no way an attack on your credibility. I think it’s safe to say that we all respect the work you do & have been doing for a long time. We are playing catch up here a bit. Druff is coming at this from an analytical standpoint. From a purely mathematical standpoint what Christopher Mitchell claims to do is impossible. Whether he has $5 in cash, $500 or $50K that is of no consequence to that conclusion. His system/strategy is a losing one and once again cash on hand does not figure into that analysis.

Christopher Mitchell and Yourself have been going back and forth in a very personal way and I don’t think you will find a single person on this forum that would even entertain not being on your side here. No one is making the argument that the fact that he may have some actual money at certain points in anyway mitigates a single thing about the scam or who he is as a person. If his money is 10% real, 50% or 90% that is just not germane to the mathematical argument.

Look the guy needs to have money just to live out there and feed his family. We are just giving our thoughts on the cash he may have on hand but it’s not important to our judgement of his scam. Just to give you a quick example a lot of us on here a poker players. There are plenty of professional poker players who are losing players but with tons of cash in the bank and vice versa there’s some very talented players who can’t hold on to money if their life depended on it. You can’t really know where someone got their money from. If someone claims to be a winning professional poker player showing me a bank balance of 10 Million Dollars means absolutely nothing to my judgement of his claim to be a great player.

So I hope I explained that alright. I understand that it is of importance to you if his money is fake or real. Just because we may disagree on some detail doesn’t mean anyone is taking an opposing position to you Dustin. This is a forum & people are going to have plenty of disagreements. Again, I have respect for what you do. We all know Christopher Mitchell is a scammer. Let’s not lose sight of the target over disagreements in the details.

[Dan Druff]

Kevin found this recently from 2010 Twitter. Hilarious!

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/QueerPornNation/status/20483367918

The URL in that 10-year-old tweet is dead, but here's an archived version. Warning: You see his dick in the article.

https://web.archive.org/web/20150501...scott-at-colt/


Scroll down to the comments section of the article. They're solid gold, with a bunch of gay perverts debating whether or not he's still hot at his then-age of 31.

[Dan Druff]

Here's that infamous Biloxi session video (February 21):

[JeffDime]

Here's that infamous Biloxi session video (February 21):

A combo of truths, half truths & lies. A lot to unpack but looks like the Martingale Gods decided it was time to pay the check. If I had to guess it was 16 K in the initial losing streak then a couple of table max bets for the 20 K coup de grais.

It seems to me to that he had to make this video because he had too many of his disciples witnessing the carnage. This couldn’t be just swept under the rug. Of course he plays the victim card talking about his childhood & being homeless many times etc. Then every excuse he can think of except for the truth on why he lost so much.

[JeffDime]

Kevin found this recently from 2010 Twitter. Hilarious!

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/QueerPornNation/status/20483367918

The URL in that 10-year-old tweet is dead, but here's an archived version. Warning: You see his dick in the article.

https://web.archive.org/web/20150501...scott-at-colt/


Scroll down to the comments section of the article. They're solid gold, with a bunch of gay perverts debating whether or not he's still hot at his then-age of 31.

The comments on the bottom of the archive are so funny it’s worth clicking. If you want to make sure you don’t see the pic simply put your left arm across the middle of the screen when you click the link. Then quickly scroll down to the bottom of the page & that should get you to the comments without having to see the nude photo.

[Dan Druff]

I've been thinking about his Martingale strategy, and it's even more ridiculous than it first appears.

He advocates starting with a bet of $100.

If you do that and lose 6 consecutive times in a Martingale betting scheme (100+200+400+800+1600+3200), you've lost $6300!

Losing 6 consecutive times is NOT hard to do! Even with even odds to win an individual bet, you're going to lose 6 in a row once every 64 bets placed.

That's a lot more common than it even appears, because you're going to play a lot more than 6 hands, which tremendously increases your odds of losing 6 in a row at some point.



These are tables of your "most likely" biggest losing streak is shown above, based upon the number of hands you play, and the odds of winning. A 50-50 odds bet would be in the 50% row.

So let's look at 50%, since it's the closest to something like blackjack or baccarat.

In just 50 hands, your most likely longest losing streak is indeed 6!

In 500 hands, your most likely longest expected losing streak is 9.

The 9 losing streak out of 500 hands doesn't sound terrible, until you realize that losing 9 in the martingale strategy with a $100 base bet would result in a $51,000 loss! Wow!!

Looking at 1000 hands, the most likely worst streak would be 10 losers in a row, which would cost you a whopping $102,300.

Now you see why people almost always get decimated when they try to Martingale with a base bet of $100. You need a SIX FIGURE BANKROLL just to avoid likely going bust within 1000 hands, all in attempt to win $100 at a time.

Again, this is only listing the "most likely" streak. There is plenty of variance where you can do better or worse. This means it's not unheard of to lose 7 or 8 in a row in a span of just 50 hands. If you lose 8 in a row, that costs you $25,500 right there.

Bottom line: He's Martingaling WAY too aggressively. Not that Martingaling is ever right, but the smaller your base bet, the more likely it is you will walk away a (small to moderate) winner.

For example, if you are betting $5 per hand, and lost 10 in a row, it would cost you a little over $5100. That's obviously awful if you're grinding out wins $5 at a time, but if you have a decent sized roll, you can at least risk it if you just want the fun of booking these smallish wins, knowing that at some point the Martingale Devil will come for you (and that you need to have a stopping point so it doesn't become disasterous).

But starting at $100 is just insanity, and is begging to go bust super quickly.




So let's take a look at what likely happened at Biloxi. As JeffDime pointed out, he likely had to do that video because too many "students" saw him lose. So instead, he framed it as a learning experience, and also claimed it helped humble him after he had won so much, so quickly (lol).

But why did he end up flat betting $5k-$10k towards the end? Because he realized he was fucked if his bad streak continued, so he stopped Martingaling and started flat betting. This is a common tactic when Martingalers either get scared or run out of money. (Laughably, in that video, instead of saying he deviated from Martingaling -- which he admitted to only later on in a subsequent video -- he claimed he lost this "non-power--of-2" amount due to his heavy tipping! LOL!!!)

So here's what I bet happened. He probably really did bring $60k there. Where he came up with $60k, I have no idea, but he probably really had $60k on him.

He said he lost $19k in one place and $17k in the other. So the second of the two likely went like this:

Bet $100 - LOSE
Bet $200 - LOSE
Bet $400 - LOSE
Bet $800 - LOSE
Bet $1600 - LOSE
Bet $3200 - LOSE
Bet $6400 - LOSE
At this point he was down $12,700, plus the $19k he was down from the first place. He probably realized at that point that he was down more than $30k, and that two more losses would come close to busting him. So he likely started flat betting $5k-$10k, shot off another $5k doing that, and finally quit.

Anyway he's going to keep running into sessions like this, as will his students betting $100 base.