Stones livestream player Mike Postle accused of "live superusing"

[Dan Druff]

Really interesting story, and in fact would be a case of life imitating art, if true.

On December 5, 2005, during the peak of the poker boom, the fictional drama TV show "Las Vegas" aired an episode about an amateur female poker player winning a poker tournament by seemingly making impossibly good reads. It turned out that the woman was in cahoots with someone on the staff which televised the final table, and gave her a signal whenever her opponent didn't really have a hand. This gave her the ability to put a ton of pressure on opponents and always get them to fold when weak.

In the story, Howard Lederer (playing himself) helped analyze the play and stated that it was just too good to be true, which led to the heroes cracking the scheme and busting both conspirators.

Of course, this was all fiction. To my knowledge, this has never occurred in real life. Despite the danger of televised events possibly allowing for cheating, I haven't heard of any verified (or even credibly accused) instances of it actually occurring.

Until now.

Mike Postle is a mostly-unknown player. He has racked up a lot of tournament cashes over the years, adding up to over $500k. However, no cash was over $118k, and most of the tournaments he's entered in the last few years have been low stakes.



He's recently been playing on the Stones Live stream, which is similar to Live at the Bike. Stones is located in the Sacramento area. Two years ago, I appeared on the stream, playing 100-200 limit holdem.

An issue was recently raised by Stones sometimes-commentator/sometimes-player Veronica, aka "Angry Polak".

Veronica was born in Poland but has spent most of her time in the US. She's 42 years old.



That's actually not even a good picture of her. I saw her two years ago in person and she looked a lot better. But I digress.

Veronica recently raised an issue on Twitter about Mike Postle's crushing of Stones Live, where he seemingly picks off all bluffs and just soul reads everyone.

Here's a compilation of hands:



Here's another one, though this is one of the rare times it didn't work out for Postle, as a fish with A9o couldn't let go of his A9 high for a ton of money!





Here are Veronica's tweets about it:

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178014854205935616

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178014856793845762

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178014858475794432

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https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178014860652662784

Stones gave this response:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178372709144645632

They were not clear what this "investigation" entailed.

Mike Postle has not been known to be a particularly tough or soul-reading player outside of the Stones Live stream.

There is some legitimate fear that he has someone on the inside signaling him in some way when his opponent does or doesn't have a hand.

Here's his Twitter, where he denies it: https://twitter.com/Mike_Postle


I have an idea... why doesn't he come down to play at Live at the Bike instead, and we can see if he has the same abilities?

[Dan Druff]

Here's a post from a new account created on 2+2 to post on the matter, so take it with a grain of salt:

I live in the Sacramento area and have played with Postle for the past couple years, with the vast majority of play being on the StonesLive games. The reason that it's been that venue is simple, despite being a massive winner and being on a heater for the past year, Postle really only plays 1-3 times a week on the stream games.

That is to say, despite playing full-time professionally, he eschews similar size or bigger games against the same player pool that have run at other cardrooms the other nights of the week. We don't see him in the bigger games around town, but surprisingly he plays in the $10 $25 $50 stream game on Sept 21 for 5-10x the stakes and unsurprisingly wins 20k.

In all the time that we've played and all the streams I've watched, he bobs and weaves and has near flawless timing to fold correctly when beat or badly behind, call correctly, value bet razor thin against weaker hands, bluff when his opponents are weak, and rebluff when his opponents are bluffing. I think it's also worth noting that he almost always racks up when the stream ends.

While reviewing all the hands will be circumstantial, as is my anecdotal contribution here, I think it's worth mentioning that finding a random hand where he makes a mistake (and they are hard to find) shouldn't immediately invalidate suspicion because any smart cheater would want to throw people off his scent. Similarly, his tournament success and the fact that he is a smart and capable poker player off the livestream shouldn't eliminate the possibility that something is amiss.

Source: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...&postcount=135

[WillieMcFML]

disclaimer: i watched very few hands

that being said, one of the things that stuck out for me, when he did "have" to lose a hand and wanted to add-on, he did it in cash

kinda weird that the casino's biggest high stakes winner doesn't have some high denomination chips in his pocket but instead pulls out a grand or two in cash

but i guess if you were cheating, you'd hate to get caught with $100k in chips that are now worthless

[Dan Druff]

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178883930717507585

This looks very bad if true.

[WillieMcFML]

let's not rule out it was just a big misunderstanding

[Dan Druff]

Chicago Joey has jumped all over this one.

Currently he's live streaming replays of Postle's hands, but whatever. Those will be discussed at length by many in the coming weeks. Let's focus on some more tangible stuff.

Joey (or someone assisting him) came up with this:



That's Mike's Linkedin page which was deleted as soon as this scandal hit!

Also, Joey posted this YouTube video of a 2017 interview with Stones where Mike talks about this "Dream Seat Poker Show" he set up there:



So Postle definitely had some kind of consulting job with Stones involving production of a poker show, presumably also involving hole card information.

Verrrrrrrrrrrry suspicious. Especially the deleted Linkedin.

[Dan Druff]

Go to 19:40 of this video:



Postle has 88, opponent has TT.

Flop comes 994. Turn T. River 8.

Instead of check-raising big, Postle just check-calls $200.

The commentators said, "There's nobody better than Mike right now."

I'll say.

This was in November 2018, so this crap has been going on for at least a year or so.

[Dan Druff]

Apparently on the above 88 vs TT hand, he claimed at the time he had 87 (a straight draw which made a pair at the end), and not 88.

He said that the 88 was simply "misread" by the RFID. Since there is no camera on the cards, and only RFID, there is no way to verify that claim. I am not aware of any other players on Stones Live having their hands misread by RFID.

You might wonder why he didn't just fold the turn if he knew his opponent had TT.

If he really was cheating, he might have wanted to lose a token amount on this hand "for show", not expecting to end up in the unusual set-under-set spot Thus, at that point, he couldn't fold, but probably wanted to lose the minimum.

[Dan Druff]

Another "RFID was wrong" moment:



Joey was going over this one.

First Postle raised the turn with an open-ender.

Postle missed & still fired river with 8 high, opponent bluff raised, and then Postle shipped over him.

He insisted after the hand that he actually had a straight, and the RFID was simply incorrect.



The "RFID was incorrect" crap is honestly the most incriminating element I've seen so far.

[Dan Druff]

The prevailing theory from many on 2+2 is that Postle didn't have full access to hole cards.

Rather, they are guessing he had some kind of morse-code-like crude signals he was receiving, such as a device on his leg.

For example:

Opponent bluffing = Long buzz
Opponent betting draw and nothing else = 2 long buzzes
Call down smallish bets and lose on purpose = 2 quick buzzes
Check/call any reasonable-sized bet = 1 quick buzz
Fold = 1 long buzz + 1 short buzz
Opponent has nuts = 3 long buzzes

This would be enough to allow you to completely own heads.

[Dan Druff]

Many have noticed that Postle never has his phone on the table, choosing to either keep it in his pocket or in his lap.

He seems to have his left hand in his lap a lot while he plays.




You see the phone here when he turns around to talk to someone.

[Dan Druff]

Here's the Joey Ingram livestream:

[Dan Druff]

Someone from near Stones named @Dougie9Fresh on Twitter is claiming he has 100% proof that he was cheating.

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/twt/status/1178948433501011969

[Dan Druff]

Here's his Twitter response from earlier, which I will quote so it doesn't get deleted

There is so much I want to say and now so much that I am forced to say which involves gloating about my 16 year poker career. One that involves me being so successful everywhere I’ve played including online, that I’ve been accused of having an unfair advantage by a handful of local individuals who convinced someone it was true, and to ultimately attack me publicly in the process with nothing but speculation on a tiny fraction of hands that are questionable at best.I’ve played a unique high variance style my entire poker career and there’s hundreds.

Of players I’ve played with over the course of those 16 years who can verify that I’ve played the same style both online and live that entire time. The difference between myself and others is that I’ve put an enormous amount of time into not just studying the game, but into human behavior, picking up on betting patterns, as well as being blessed with very good instincts.

I have had no other income other than poker. Not a trust fund baby, no rich family, just a guy who was blessed with desire to be the best he could be but not forgetting where he came from, his close friends n family, and that there’s way more to life than playing poker. Fighting for my daughter and being a single father can definitely change your desires and life perception. There’s SO much more I will be saying and coming out with, and for the time being I just want to thank those who actually know me, and for not being one of the handful of egotistical, competition driven, jealous hating ones who have it out for me. I apologize for simply being better than you at poker.

For that local handful, I'd love to talk to you man to man to get your thoughts instead of hiding behind a screen or whispering behind my back and we can talk about it. Or we can play a string of heads up matches off stream if you need it hammered home to you that my abilities go much further than any livestream.

I will close with a giant thank you to those who know me and have shown support, you’ve helped dry some tears from the heartbreak of this to which I have no words. I shy from positive attention so you can imagine how I feel about the worst attention I could ever imagine. ❤️ all u.

[MrTickle]

Clear cheating. He's played for over a decade with this insane winrate and still only plays 5-5? Yeah right. Clear cheat.

[JoeD]

Here's his Twitter response from earlier, which I will quote so it doesn't get deleted

There is so much I want to say and now so much that I am forced to say which involves gloating about my 16 year poker career. One that involves me being so successful everywhere I’ve played including online, that I’ve been accused of having an unfair advantage by a handful of local individuals who convinced someone it was true, and to ultimately attack me publicly in the process with nothing but speculation on a tiny fraction of hands that are questionable at best.I’ve played a unique high variance style my entire poker career and there’s hundreds.

Of players I’ve played with over the course of those 16 years who can verify that I’ve played the same style both online and live that entire time. The difference between myself and others is that I’ve put an enormous amount of time into not just studying the game, but into human behavior, picking up on betting patterns, as well as being blessed with very good instincts.

I have had no other income other than poker. Not a trust fund baby, no rich family, just a guy who was blessed with desire to be the best he could be but not forgetting where he came from, his close friends n family, and that there’s way more to life than playing poker. Fighting for my daughter and being a single father can definitely change your desires and life perception. There’s SO much more I will be saying and coming out with, and for the time being I just want to thank those who actually know me, and for not being one of the handful of egotistical, competition driven, jealous hating ones who have it out for me. I apologize for simply being better than you at poker.

For that local handful, I'd love to talk to you man to man to get your thoughts instead of hiding behind a screen or whispering behind my back and we can talk about it. Or we can play a string of heads up matches off stream if you need it hammered home to you that my abilities go much further than any livestream.

I will close with a giant thank you to those who know me and have shown support, you’ve helped dry some tears from the heartbreak of this to which I have no words. I shy from positive attention so you can imagine how I feel about the worst attention I could ever imagine. ❤️ all u.

I'm no forensic expert, but when someone in this type of situation of alleged wrongdoing brings up stuff like "I have no other income," "I started with nothing," and he's "fighting for his daughter as a single father," those are sympathy plays and efforts to deflect from the real issue.

I note that he doesn't actually deny the cheating allegations in his response.

I'm still unclear on how he is cheating - lots of allegations but nothing proven yet that I can see.

[OracleOmaha]

I love a good fraud story! Here are my thoughts based on some, but not extensive, digging. I haven't watched Joey's recap of his hands.

1. It's not clear he's cheating but this should raise significant red flags.

2. StonesLivePoker's Tweet shows management incompetency. The allegations aren't fabricated (regardless if true or false) and they've given no evidence of what investigation they've done. I'd be surprised if it was more than very limited. They should should not keep him on the stream and they should consider shutting down the stream until they give a basis for game integrity. This should be reported to California gaming ASAP. If there is a cheating scandal it's possible management/ownership is involved.

3. If his VPIP is as high as they say (over 50%?) then this guy isn't a winning player at any level. Until someone shows me otherwise it's impossible. He claims he was a winner in online poker and that can't be true unless he has changed his style significantly.

4. The hand where he just called a 60% river bet with 88 on a 99Tx8 board is very suspicious. Not check-shoving on the river is a horrible play unless you've received communication that you're beat or you have a long-term amazing read of this player's tendencies. Why is Mike spending so much time on his phone while waiting for his opponent to bet on this river? Conversely, in Mike's defense, why would Mike check call the turn if he knew what his opponent had? One possibility is that he hadn't received accurate information yet.

Later the commentators said Justin told them he had 78 and not 88. Who is Justin? How does Justin know what Mike had? Was there a reason Mike would tell Justin what he had in that hand? It appears that would be the only way for Justin to know but there are other logical possibilities. If the cards require manual entry on the screen someone could have made an input error.

Justin was communicating with the commentators - is he part of the production team? Justin seems to know whats going on with the stream commentary. If so, are players allowed to communicate with the production team? If Justin is part of the production team and he was communicating with Mike this is a major red flag and shows an unacceptable lack of security controls with this game.

How does RFID work? Is it likely to misread an 8 for a 7? Is it common for the this RFID system to misread hands? Are these RFID errors or input errors?

5. Veronica's looks are not evidence for or against cheating

6. I've heard people say he wins in all or almost every live stream. Does anyone know for sure?

7. Apparently Mike was a part of this production at some point. Another major red flag.

8. People are seeing all the evidence against Mike and before we rush to judgment we should have more complete info. It's possible there is no cheating. However, he should be temporarily removed from these games.

[Salty_Aus]

Nearly impossible to win playing that style of play... nearly 60%VPIP
I say nearly impossible as some folks can pull off a superLAG style.

He doesn't make spastic bluffs when he's beat and likely to be called, and his own bluffs are staggeringly well timed. SuperLAG player who never barrels into the nuts... impossible.

Can't keep his eyes off his phone that he conceals in his lap.

Zero point zero chance he's playing legit.

[Forum Wars]

Just hearing about the scandal now: Great work by the detectives so far. I am loving how logic can catch a bad guy in poker - oh if they only concealed their VPIP better (but criminals aren't remarkable usually).

The VPIP thing PLUS this nugget from Joey Ingram's tweet:

"It looks like he was also involved on the production side of things at some point in time w/ access to the live stream".

...really piqued my interest and made me actualy mouth out: "yup, this guys probably guilty".

Well, that and the fact that the Stones Poker room said they did a "full investigation" and concluded nothing was out of the ordinary. That was really the icing on the cake and actually the thing that strongly solidified my bias that he is going to be found guilty in the court of Internet detectives' opinion.



Again, well done PI's....this is gonna be a fun read for a few hours now since I have gotten my life sustaining work done for the day.

[Forum Wars]

Man, do I have a theory here too...