*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[jsearles22]

finau +2 thru 6 today...that's more like it...

Maybe the opium isn't working as well today

Mize is leaking oil. Only Par on the front was on the two par 5s.......

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

finau +2 thru 6 today...that's more like it...

Maybe the opium isn't working as well today

yup...his first round wont be remembered, but that's one of the greatest rounds in the history of golf...

[Daly]

Maybe the opium isn't working as well today

Mize is leaking oil. Only Par on the front was on the two par 5s.......

Need him to get around amen corner at +1

This was always going to be a war of attrition. Technically He was off to a better start that Woos.... let's see if Woos has the same issues

[Daly]

Fuck - we are Cooked.

Only 10 guys are even or better on the day and one of them is a 60 year old who was +7 yesterday.

[Sheesfaced]

Fuck - we are Cooked.

Certainly not looking good.

[unlearn]

Fat chops with a double bogey on 9 to give us a sweat at least

[Sheesfaced]

That double bogey helps. May have at least a sweat.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

lotta big numbers to be had around this course especially when you aren't a long hitter...being 3 down with 9 to go is nothing...

[Gookieheimowitz]

As jsearles wants to see my NBA record so badly because he knows I did badly at the end, here it is:

Record after March 9 was 173-147-6.

Here's what happened since then:

3/10:
Charlotte under 218 - LOST
3/11:
Chicago under 213 - LOST
Sac under 214 - LOST
3/13:
Knicks +1 - LOST
3/14:
Milwaukee -10.5 - LOST
Golden State Under 223.5 - WON
3/16:
Sacramento +9 - WON
3/17:
Brooklyn -4 - WON
Denver -6.5 - LOST
Cleveland -7 - LOST
Utah under 198 - LOST
3/18:
Clippers under 218 - LOST
3/19:
San Antonio over 201 - LOST
3/23:
Cleveland under 228 - WON
Utah under 193.5 - LOST
Miami over 217.5 - LOST
Golden State under 220.5 - WON
4/3
Cleveland under 222 - WON

Record from 3/10-4/3: 6-12

Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)

So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much.

The season was a tale of two parts:

Through December 30: 98-62-2
December 31-April 3: 81-97-4

While this "break" is arbitrary (I purposely selected my peak and then started the second portion at my first real losing streak), it's clear that I was doing something very right in November and December, but stuck too long with an approach which wasn't cutting it in the middle and later portions of the season.

I did have some bad luck in the second portion of the season, getting a lot of unders ruined by OT (more than expectation), and taking a number of bad beats on spread games.

Also notable was HOW I was winning. In November and December, it was common for my picks to win by 20+ points (especially the unders). In 2018, my wins tended to be close. This is important because the blowout wins tend to indicate an excellent pick, while the close wins are more a function of luck.

I may or may not pick the playoffs. I'm mostly done for the regular season, unless something jumps out at me.

Next year I will take a different approach in January-April, and perhaps just shut it down if I start to slump, as it seems I'm just better at early season.

Druff: There is only one way to bet the NBA and make money but it takes major discipline and good timing.

First thing you do is look at scheduled games for the day and eliminate all games that do not include a home favorite at -5 or more.

Then you wait

As soon as a home favorite of -5 or more at any point in the game before the 8:00 mark of the 4th quarter finds themselves down by 10 or more points you unload on the home favorite in game to win the match . This does not happen often but it does happen enough during each week to make it interesting. You will find yourself getting some big numbers on the + side . In game wagering has changed the NBA forever as far as betting goes. On the flip side of this if you follow in game you can always lay big numbers with the winning team at the end of games . Example teams that are up 15 with 3:00 left in the game will get an in game number like -16.5 they cover a majority of these games .

The Home favorite if you have the stomach for it sometimes gets down 20 points early and comes back to win easily . I've seen plus numbers in the 600-700 range in the 2nd quarter of games . Why fight the locked in spreads?

[unlearn]

Birdie on 10 for the dagger. Need to go 4 over on final 8 to push

[Daly]

Birdie on 10 for the dagger. Need to go 4 over on final 8 to push

We need a +2 around amen corner out of this slopopotumus to have a shot.

Can't believe we in this bad a shape, but that's gambling

[unlearn]

He went +4 on Amen Corner yesterday so I'm not throwing in the towel just yet. Where is that guy from NWP who got arrested for jumping in the bunker in front of Phil like 10 years ago when you need him? BenHogan?

[Daly]

Woos is just too good. Too bad we have no shot.

GG. NH. easy Mark

[ErickAA]

As jsearles wants to see my NBA record so badly because he knows I did badly at the end, here it is:

Record after March 9 was 173-147-6.

Here's what happened since then:

3/10:
Charlotte under 218 - LOST
3/11:
Chicago under 213 - LOST
Sac under 214 - LOST
3/13:
Knicks +1 - LOST
3/14:
Milwaukee -10.5 - LOST
Golden State Under 223.5 - WON
3/16:
Sacramento +9 - WON
3/17:
Brooklyn -4 - WON
Denver -6.5 - LOST
Cleveland -7 - LOST
Utah under 198 - LOST
3/18:
Clippers under 218 - LOST
3/19:
San Antonio over 201 - LOST
3/23:
Cleveland under 228 - WON
Utah under 193.5 - LOST
Miami over 217.5 - LOST
Golden State under 220.5 - WON
4/3
Cleveland under 222 - WON

Record from 3/10-4/3: 6-12

Overall NBA record to date: 179-159-6 (52.96%)

So that's a little above the 52.38% mark you need to have a profitable season, but not by much.

The season was a tale of two parts:

Through December 30: 98-62-2
December 31-April 3: 81-97-4

While this "break" is arbitrary (I purposely selected my peak and then started the second portion at my first real losing streak), it's clear that I was doing something very right in November and December, but stuck too long with an approach which wasn't cutting it in the middle and later portions of the season.

I did have some bad luck in the second portion of the season, getting a lot of unders ruined by OT (more than expectation), and taking a number of bad beats on spread games.

Also notable was HOW I was winning. In November and December, it was common for my picks to win by 20+ points (especially the unders). In 2018, my wins tended to be close. This is important because the blowout wins tend to indicate an excellent pick, while the close wins are more a function of luck.

I may or may not pick the playoffs. I'm mostly done for the regular season, unless something jumps out at me.

Next year I will take a different approach in January-April, and perhaps just shut it down if I start to slump, as it seems I'm just better at early season.

Druff: There is only one way to bet the NBA and make money but it takes major discipline and good timing.

First thing you do is look at scheduled games for the day and eliminate all games that do not include a home favorite at -5 or more.

Then you wait

As soon as a home favorite of -5 or more at any point in the game before the 8:00 mark of the 4th quarter finds themselves down by 10 or more points you unload on the home favorite in game to win the match . This does not happen often but it does happen enough during each week to make it interesting. You will find yourself getting some big numbers on the + side . In game wagering has changed the NBA forever as far as betting goes. On the flip side of this if you follow in game you can always lay big numbers with the winning team at the end of games . Example teams that are up 15 with 3:00 left in the game will get an in game number like -16.5 they cover a majority of these games .

The Home favorite if you have the stomach for it sometimes gets down 20 points early and comes back to win easily . I've seen plus numbers in the 600-700 range in the 2nd quarter of games . Why fight the locked in spreads?

Lol. In game wagering is worse than props as far as how fast the books shut you down if you are beating it. It is worse than props because they will literally just cancel your winning bets and honor your losing ones. In wage gaming is completely -EV because of this. I do it anyways but I have no illusions.

[Gookieheimowitz]

Druff: There is only one way to bet the NBA and make money but it takes major discipline and good timing.

First thing you do is look at scheduled games for the day and eliminate all games that do not include a home favorite at -5 or more.

Then you wait

As soon as a home favorite of -5 or more at any point in the game before the 8:00 mark of the 4th quarter finds themselves down by 10 or more points you unload on the home favorite in game to win the match . This does not happen often but it does happen enough during each week to make it interesting. You will find yourself getting some big numbers on the + side . In game wagering has changed the NBA forever as far as betting goes. On the flip side of this if you follow in game you can always lay big numbers with the winning team at the end of games . Example teams that are up 15 with 3:00 left in the game will get an in game number like -16.5 they cover a majority of these games .

The Home favorite if you have the stomach for it sometimes gets down 20 points early and comes back to win easily . I've seen plus numbers in the 600-700 range in the 2nd quarter of games . Why fight the locked in spreads?

Lol. In game wagering is worse than props as far as how fast the books shut you down if you are beating it. It is worse than props because they will literally just cancel your winning bets and honor your losing ones. In wage gaming is completely -EV because of this. I do it anyways but I have no illusions.

I've never had a problem in game wagering ? I'm sure the online books probably cancel tickets and refuse wagers . Live doing this you will never have a problem. I do believe there are some wagering limits live but the only problem I have ever encountered doing this live is the teller being to slow to get the number I want . In game wagering provides a ton of opportunities . If you follow the game flow totals become so clear and vulnerable . Teams that come out and combine for 70 points in the first quarter boost the total 20 points of original number and then suddenly they cant hit a shot and the number comes back to reality . These spots come up a lot if you watch for them .

[Gookieheimowitz]

http://www.nbaminer.com/margins-comebacks/


Here are some stats . I won't go through to see how many applied to -5 point favorites at home but as you can see a 10 point comeback is common and even 15 point comebacks are not rare . As I stated though 20+ are rare but the odds you get reflect that you do not have to win many to have a positive roi% for this type of wager. Only sticking to Home favorites who fall behind keeps your options to a small but profitable size .

[Dan Druff]

Cin/Pit under yesterday was so nice, we'll do it twice.

Cincy (L. Castillo) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) under 7.5 +105

Game at 4:05pm PDT

[Daly]

Sorry to anyone who tailed me on that quagmire. If bet it again tomorrow if they let me.

[Sheesfaced]

Sorry to anyone who tailed me on that quagmire. If bet it again tomorrow if they let me.

No doubt was a good bet. Right process wrong result. And fuck the Woose.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

I don't think Lebron is gonna put over the sixers on ESPN quite yet. And if he does it will be last second. You can get 4.5 at most places.