So my theory has been that this is a job/employment market unlike any we have ever seen before and rates rising simply will not cause the recession the Fed is dying to induce. So far, it appears as if that has been correct. The Fed has been raising rates since April, and this is what unemployment has done.

April - 3.6
May - 3.6
June - 3.6
July - 3.5
Aug - 3.7
Sept - 3.6

It's done absolutely fucking nothing. The reason IMO is the great resignation. There are simply too many jobs out there for people who "need" them to pay bills. There are for hire signs EVERYWHERE. Every business is seemingly still understaffed. This is not the foundation of a recession, quite the opposite. So how in the world are they going to kill all this? Get laid off from a corporate job with a pulse.....you can find another job to pay the bills. Have a major life event that you need cash for? Sell the house that has 200k in equity in it after the last 2 years. (that is what the average homeowner has at last check)

As long as this is happening, the economy will not be crushed like they want. My only question is not IF they will realize this...but WHEN?? It will obviously be long after everyone else realizes it, but at some point they have to get the message that their grand plan is just not going to work with this incredibly unique job market/economy. Many people said oh just wait til those rates hit 5.5%...that is the number where it all starts to come crashing down. We blew past that 4 months ago and are now well over 7%. Still no "pain" like they want in the major markets, outside of stocks.

Speaking of housing, once again the "crash" that they are trying to induce just isn't happening. In some markets that went up 100% in 2 years (like 5 of them out of hundreds), yes a pull back is coming. But for the large majority of "normal" markets they just didn't see that type of run up, despite what the media narrative is. I have a bunch of properties in a certain area. 15 min from a large metro area. My appreciation was 12% in 2021, an 9% so far this year. That isn't a market that even has a chance to "crash" and there are markets like that all over the country. Most of them as a matter of fact. Look at the national median price and it shows that we are really just seeing a normal seasonal decline as far as prices, with volume in the tank because instead of crashing the market....they just froze it essentially. Can't refi. Not a great time of year/landscape to sell. Tough to buy. And no one with a 3% or lower rate (which is like 70% of all notes) is going to do anything either. Just sit in place. And once again, the Fed though that "they" could control the market and force a crash, but it hasn't and won't happen. There is simply not enough supply (literally half of what it was in 2019) and there is so much money still floating around out there after the past 2 years.

So people who are far smarter than me tell me where I am wrong here, I am genuinely interested. I myself am in a hold pattern with all things financial seeing where this thing goes next. I just can't see a scenario where 8....9...10% rates are going to happen. It hasn't in 40 years and I don't think it will ever happen again.