*** Official Flying Stupidity Wagering thread ***

[simpdog]

Using each player's wide-open 3P shooting percentage, and breaking all ties randomly, this is the result of 100,000 simulations

curry		20%	+410
thompson	17%	+499
redick		16%	+522
booker		13%	+649
middleton	11%	+799
harden		10%	+866
mccollum	10%	+901
lowry		3%	+3461

Well done but 3 pters in game <> 3 pt contest

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

Running another sim using catch-and-shoot 3P%

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

The moral of the story is that Curry and Bosh are both WAY overpriced. Should be approximately 20% and exactly 0%, respectively.

[chinamaniac]

The moral of the story is that Curry and Bosh are both WAY overpriced. Should be approximately 20% and exactly 0%, respectively.

Yup, I think the catch and shoot sim will be a better model for this contest.

BOOKER FTW

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

catch-and-shoot model

curry		20%	+411
redick		22%	+356
thompson	10%	+871
booker		11%	+800
middleton	12%	+710
lowry		18%	+444
mccollum	4%	+2654
harden		3%	+3528

combined model, essentially double weighting wide-open & catch-and-shoot 3P attempts, the shot most closely resembling the contest

curry		20%	+411
redick		19%	+426
thompson	13%	+641
booker		12%	+718
middleton	12%	+752
lowry		11%	+844
mccollum	7%	+1369
harden		7%	+1426

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

thanks IAPT, fucking phenomenal...guess redick is fairly priced...fuck...

very, very, very interesting on booker...

gonna fire on both and hope for a booker upset...

LOL, just went to fire on booker and the lines have fucking shifted like crazy...wtf!??!

97569 STEPHEN CURRY, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +108
97570 JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS +1078
97571 KLAY THOMPSON, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +569
97572 KHRIS MIDDLETON, MILWAUKEE BUCKS +529
97573 KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS +759
97574 JJ REDICK, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +337
97575 CHRIS BOSH, MIAMI HEAT +4941
97576 DEVIN BOOKER, PHOENIX SUNS +630

[TMMLK]

TMMLK'S LOCK OF THE NBA ALL STAR GAME

UNDER 316.5

WEST IS OBV A GOD TEAM, BUT I THINK EAST HAS A SHOT TO COVER AT +6

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

thanks IAPT, fucking phenomenal...guess redick is fairly priced...fuck...

very, very, very interesting on booker...

gonna fire on both and hope for a booker upset...

LOL, just went to fire on booker and the lines have fucking shifted like crazy...wtf!??!

97569 STEPHEN CURRY, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +108
97570 JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS +1078
97571 KLAY THOMPSON, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +569
97572 KHRIS MIDDLETON, MILWAUKEE BUCKS +529
97573 KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS +759
97574 JJ REDICK, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +337
97575 CHRIS BOSH, MIAMI HEAT +4941
97576 DEVIN BOOKER, PHOENIX SUNS +630

my b

hilarious that bosh is still listed 10 hours after he withdrew

[Dan Druff]

Let's discuss the NBA All Star total.

All the $ is flowing on over. It's gone up to 317.

Last year it finished at 321 (the game, not the line).

TMMLK thinks it will go under.

I kind of think that, too.

One factor is Kobe Bryant. He is old, slow, and can't shoot. He's a starter on the team, and I think they will be giving him the ball a lot, because it's his final year. I think this will slow down scoring. Recall that scoring has to be at breakneck speed (almost 7 points per minute) in order to go over.

Opinions?

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

No opinion other than the total seems to go up 10 points every year and it still always goes over.

Maybe more effort on defense with the entire week off?

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Did the all star game where Magic played with Aids hit under or over?

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

No opinion other than the total seems to go up 10 points every year and it still always goes over.

Maybe more effort on defense with the entire week off?

Thanks for green repping my "last" post on the site. Notexpected.com. I will be in vegas for pac 12 tourney. Washington Huskies are probably the most fun team to watch in basketball right now.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

I wonder how the court, rims, and sight lines are in the MGM? I've never seen a game there. I swear I have these teams pegged though. 8k uptick risking only 220 a game. (One degen parlay.) This local bookie is keeping me in the game. I've already got slow payed like 4 times but that got me to stop doing parlays. It's the worst bookie of all time.

And I don't want to be a dick but please don't be a guy setting up a Peter D.C. You remind me of him. For all I know you are nice to me because you fear my loose cannon tendencies. Rolling innocent people is super low.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Also if I don't post much anymore I'm still looking for spots to bet the Magic as I've loved them all year. My other bet on teams are the Nuggets and also the Celtics.

[chinamaniac]

Let's discuss the NBA All Star total.

All the $ is flowing on over. It's gone up to 317.

Last year it finished at 321 (the game, not the line).

TMMLK thinks it will go under.

I kind of think that, too.

One factor is Kobe Bryant. He is old, slow, and can't shoot. He's a starter on the team, and I think they will be giving him the ball a lot, because it's his final year. I think this will slow down scoring. Recall that scoring has to be at breakneck speed (almost 7 points per minute) in order to go over.

Opinions?

I think if they let Kobe turn loose nobody is going to guard him seriously.

It has gone over 317 the past 2 years , once by 4 points and once by 1 point

Prior to that it has never hit that number.

I'd play the under and if they score 318 then so be it

[Sanlmar]

Let's discuss the NBA All Star total.

All the $ is flowing on over. It's gone up to 317.

Last year it finished at 321 (the game, not the line).

TMMLK thinks it will go under.

I kind of think that, too.

One factor is Kobe Bryant. He is old, slow, and can't shoot. He's a starter on the team, and I think they will be giving him the ball a lot, because it's his final year. I think this will slow down scoring. Recall that scoring has to be at breakneck speed (almost 7 points per minute) in order to go over.

Opinions?

If TMMLK says it's an under why are you still looking for another opinion?

[Daly]

Only a real degenerate would bet on the NBA all star game.



That said put me down for 1 unit of under 317.5

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

I wonder how the court, rims, and sight lines are in the MGM? I've never seen a game there.

I saw a Pac 12 tournament game there a few years ago. The venue is fine for basketball.

I swear I have these teams pegged though. 8k uptick risking only 220 a game. (One degen parlay.) This local bookie is keeping me in the game. I've already got slow payed like 4 times but that got me to stop doing parlays. It's the worst bookie of all time.

"The last bullet is always blank."

And I don't want to be a dick but please don't be a guy setting up a Peter D.C. You remind me of him. For all I know you are nice to me because you fear my loose cannon tendencies. Rolling innocent people is super low.

Let me know if you need a free room at Caesar's. Just charge everything to your credit card but my comps will cover it. I promise.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

Wow. Thanks. I will decline because it is not something I need but thanks anyway.

[IAmProfessionalTalk]

Strangely there's actually some value on the hefty lefty, one of the most overrated golfers of all time, as he tries to hold a 2 stroke lead for his last career win

Mickelson to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am ... -177

Mickelson vs Jacobson H2H 4th Round ... -174