FAO Stock geeks: My NIA type pick for the next while

[Sanlmar]

aight san (and shit chaps didn't know you were a daytrader too), since you guys seem to follow this shit closely figured id asked your unbiased opinions.

what are your thoughts on selling options outright, not covered or anything like that...learned it because of an ex-boss of mine who blew up the book I worked for...fucker was supposed to have a fairly low amount of risk, but on average he'd be short $200-250K of theta per day...to me felt like playing somebody with 4 cards in Omaha when they had 5 and position...

anyway, I thought being short that much theta was stupid so I thought I'd start selling options and being long theta and at least having that going with me...

I focus on the weeklys because that's obviously the best short strategy because your theta burn is so great...I try to strangle the stuff I trade so that I can get the most bang for my margin dollars and stop myself out when I lose 100%...

I know the risk is obviously a position slamming against me so I'm still trying to figure out how to combat that, but I've been doing pretty good with it for the past 15 months...

I am Joey Knish not Mike McDermott. I have been broke before & have bills to pay. So I don't venture into your dark place.

Your looking to gamble time.

THETA is anathema to me. I daytrade very very small time frames. Nicking and scalping. I don't know what I am having for dinner that night much less what the market is going to do in the future.

100% stop loss. You're an animal.

Complex options trades is a quant thing - a math game - if played for the edges. There are opportunities with poor pricing.

I do use options near expiration as an indicator as to where a stock will get pegged by traders - the whole MAX PAIN thing.

Now if you want to gamble.... I do trade options sometimes near expiration where the time value has evaporated (the opposite of Theta) for underlying stocks that I think I have a feel for that day. A tiny move in stock price can double, triple or more the expiring option.

For me, biggest baddest gamble option wise... The triple play: Occasionally, I latch on to a stock ...
1. near options expiration
2. toward market close that day
3. with an earnings announcement that night.

Out of the money options can be trading for 20-30 cents.
I usually, play in the money options and try to bink a big return inside of an hour.

I try to think less about what I expect the earnings release might be & more about who is the market trying to fuck here?

I really got to be in a zone about a stocks price movement. I did this with that madman GPRO recently.

[simpdog]

Sanlmar is advanced.

If you want the cliff notes,

• Buy some Amaya stock (AYA.TO) and sit back and enjoy

Forget gambling on options or making stupid trades. Load up on Amaya.

Also start putting $1k/month into oil stocks. Whether it's USO or oil companies or whatever. If there's one sure thing, oil is going back up eventually.

[DJ_Chaps]

Official SHORT TERM SWING RECOMMENDATION

CANF (AMEX)

I like how its acting above 4 here, could make another push/PUMP. I just hammered it in the ole lol paper acct @ 4.14.

Volume out of nowhere last week off the 52 wk low double tap @ 2.29.


Tight stops and aggressive targets nah miggas.

Surged over $5 today, hitting high of 5.48. Fading back to $5 now. We'll see hot it goes here.

[Sanlmar]

CANF hit short term resistance @ 5.50 ish. Nice chart

TASR jam from a nice little pennant flag for almost a buck between 12:00 & 1:00

Was watching stupid bitcoin and its flag - kinda breaking out up?

GPRO never dull. Always nice action. GPRO wants to sell turn-key camera outfitted drones $500-$1000

[abrown83]

Sanlmar is advanced.

If you want the cliff notes,

• Buy some Amaya stock (AYA.TO) and sit back and enjoy

Forget gambling on options or making stupid trades. Load up on Amaya.

Also start putting $1k/month into oil stocks. Whether it's USO or oil companies or whatever. If there's one sure thing, oil is going back up eventually.

Why not wait till oil is like $50 a barrel before doing this? As long as OPEC doesn't cut we are at a million barrel surplus a day flooding on to the market.

Also LOL at all the speculators who are getting their ass handed to them....you deserved it.

[Sanlmar]

Sanlmar is advanced.

If you want the cliff notes,

• Buy some Amaya stock (AYA.TO) and sit back and enjoy

Forget gambling on options or making stupid trades. Load up on Amaya.

Also start putting $1k/month into oil stocks. Whether it's USO or oil companies or whatever. If there's one sure thing, oil is going back up eventually.

Why not wait till oil is like $50 a barrel before doing this? As long as OPEC doesn't cut we are at a million barrel surplus a day flooding on to the market.

Also LOL at all the speculators who are getting their ass handed to them....you deserved it.

Yeah. His long term thinking is one thing. But markets - particularly commodities always overshoot logical expectations.

You can't put The North American producers (Russia etc.) out of business with just a few months of low prices.

Entry price is sooo important. Wait for it to turn & show you the reversal first. Give up a lil profit to make sure you are right about trend.

Hockeyguy looking for work in his industry at precisely this moment is prolly a fuckimg pain in his ass.

[GambleBotsChafedPenis]

aight san (and shit chaps didn't know you were a daytrader too), since you guys seem to follow this shit closely figured id asked your unbiased opinions.

what are your thoughts on selling options outright, not covered or anything like that...learned it because of an ex-boss of mine who blew up the book I worked for...fucker was supposed to have a fairly low amount of risk, but on average he'd be short $200-250K of theta per day...to me felt like playing somebody with 4 cards in Omaha when they had 5 and position...

anyway, I thought being short that much theta was stupid so I thought I'd start selling options and being long theta and at least having that going with me...

I focus on the weeklys because that's obviously the best short strategy because your theta burn is so great...I try to strangle the stuff I trade so that I can get the most bang for my margin dollars and stop myself out when I lose 100%...

I know the risk is obviously a position slamming against me so I'm still trying to figure out how to combat that, but I've been doing pretty good with it for the past 15 months...

I am Joey Knish not Mike McDermott. I have been broke before & have bills to pay. So I don't venture into your dark place.

Your looking to gamble time.

THETA is anathema to me. I daytrade very very small time frames. Nicking and scalping. I don't know what I am having for dinner that night much less what the market is going to do in the future.

100% stop loss. You're an animal.

Complex options trades is a quant thing - a math game - if played for the edges. There are opportunities with poor pricing.

I do use options near expiration as an indicator as to where a stock will get pegged by traders - the whole MAX PAIN thing.

Now if you want to gamble.... I do trade options sometimes near expiration where the time value has evaporated (the opposite of Theta) for underlying stocks that I think I have a feel for that day. A tiny move in stock price can double, triple or more the expiring option.

For me, biggest baddest gamble option wise... The triple play: Occasionally, I latch on to a stock ...
1. near options expiration
2. toward market close that day
3. with an earnings announcement that night.

Out of the money options can be trading for 20-30 cents.
I usually, play in the money options and try to bink a big return inside of an hour.

I try to think less about what I expect the earnings release might be & more about who is the market trying to fuck here?

I really got to be in a zone about a stocks price movement. I did this with that madman GPRO recently.

yeah I feel ya...the naked options thing is a little gamble-y...that's why im trying to figure out a way to take off some of the risk without losing a chunk of the return...

the 100% loss may seem like a lot, but for 3-5 lots it's like $200-400 per trade...if you can strictly stick to a stop loss you'll be fine...its tough to do while working, but keeps me from falling asleep...the etrade app is god for that...

one of the trades I feel confident in is anytime the VXX spikes is to short deeeeeeeeeeep out of the money calls...its amazing how much the volatility on that thing spikes when the market is going to shit...when the market was going to shit in October that ETF was trading at like 42-44 and the 90 calls that expired about 5 weeks out were trading at like 2.50...that's fucking crazy considering how the VXX is constructed...unless the world implodes the thing is destined to go to 0...

[simpdog]

Sanlmar is advanced.

If you want the cliff notes,

• Buy some Amaya stock (AYA.TO) and sit back and enjoy

Forget gambling on options or making stupid trades. Load up on Amaya.

Also start putting $1k/month into oil stocks. Whether it's USO or oil companies or whatever. If there's one sure thing, oil is going back up eventually.

Why not wait till oil is like $50 a barrel before doing this? As long as OPEC doesn't cut we are at a million barrel surplus a day flooding on to the market.

Also LOL at all the speculators who are getting their ass handed to them....you deserved it.

I'm not dumping 100K into oil right now. I'm talking about putting $1k/month into oil. If the downswing goes 2 yrs that's just fine. In fact I hope it keeps dropping to $50.

Unless you have a magic 8ball that can tell me the exact tipping point, I'm all about getting in while it's down. As long as it goes up in the next 10-20 yrs it's all gravy.

[DJ_Chaps]

Official SHORT TERM SWING RECOMMENDATION

CANF (AMEX)

I like how its acting above 4 here, could make another push/PUMP. I just hammered it in the ole lol paper acct @ 4.14.

Volume out of nowhere last week off the 52 wk low double tap @ 2.29.


Tight stops and aggressive targets nah miggas.

Surged over $5 today, hitting high of 5.48. Fading back to $5 now. We'll see hot it goes here.

WELL FUARKKKK THE SIQQQ CUNTS HAD TO DUMP IT INTO THE CLOSE.

/caps

Obv if this was a real trade, at the very least id have dumped 1/2 around $5. (Then again I woke up after the drop from highs, if this were real id be up 1hr early min. everyday premarket lol and sold 1/2 in that higher range, possibly..... easy to say that in hindsight, trading a paper acct)

[simpdog]

Amaya big drop to start the day. Sub 36 now.

[Sanlmar]

Amaya big drop to start the day. Sub 36 now.

I am in AYA now. I had a plan to buy under $36 & I stuck to it. Had no fucking idea what that was about this morning.

2 day 5 minute chart


Lotta people own a lot of stock & warrants at near $0 cost basis - so occasionally someone is gonna sell for end of year taxes & statements. Sold in a foolish fashion but that happens. Intraday recovery is an excellent sign.


TASR is giving me a stiffy. Feels like a home run. Michael Brown did not die in vain.

6 month daily


Simp, I wish you would pay more attention to entry price. It's a big part of the game. It's something I keep thinking when I post here - so there, I said it...

[Sanlmar]

I am still short the QQQ's so life is not all wine and roses. I still feel a sell off in the market. Way overbought.

[simpdog]

Amaya big drop to start the day. Sub 36 now.

Simp, I wish you would pay more attention to entry price. It's a big part of the game. It's something I keep thinking when I post here - so there, I said it...

I'm trying to learn some tips on PFA other than how to make a cat crap on a toilet (I hate cats).

I should just hire Chaps to manage my funds, would like be better than grabbing shares here and there myself.

Please continue to post pointers and/or criticism. I don't mind and this will be the most valuable thread to me (worm hole picks of 2012 will move down to #2) over time.

[DJ_Chaps]

Stephanie McMahaon fuckin loves dumping WWE stock at market, swear to fuck. At least WWE is buyable again, IMO.

[Sanlmar]

Taser TASR is running like a champ. Getting a little loose and sloppy up here. Too late to buy IMO. I am lovin it.

Story here is the cop cameras. Taser does a cloud service for the police video and charges monthly fee.

[Sanlmar]

Crude. Only when people start accepting the current new price level will you see a rebound IMO.

Traders just eat the doubters. Reversal always happens when you least expect it.

[Wiganer]

http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/chrt/chrt_wr...nd1_3=&ind2_3=

[Sanlmar]

Oil $63.46 Amazing.

Morgan Stanley analysts slashed forecasts for oil to bottom as low as $43 a barrel in 2015. They are idiots when it comes to trading but fun to consider the thought.

HockeyGuy, you chat with the old crew? Your old company has got to be shitting themselves.

Time to let some air outta the stock market bubble too.

How long before housing shits the bed? Wall Street Journal front page story last week about home appraisers showing signs of fudging the numbers like the old days.

[simpdog]

I'm seeing a lot of red the past couple days. Is the shit finally starting to hit the fan?

[Sanlmar]

I'm seeing a lot of red the past couple days. Is the shit finally starting to hit the fan?

It's fun to think about but I reeaaaally try to prevent myself from trading those kind of market calls.

My mantra is: Trade what you see.

If I was to guess, the answer would be no. End of year approaches and people get bonuses by-and-large for being long and right. They aren't gonna blow up nice gains.

In terms of crowd psychology, has been a long time since we have had bad news though, and the first whiff of something troubling given these huge runs we COULD see some selling - panic selling to lock in yearly gains which triggers more panic selling as prices go down..etc. etc.

I am short the QQQ's but that was a while ago & that's a loser.

AYA really needs to hold $35. I bought $35.70 It is $35.68. Draw a horizontal line at $35 across 6 month chart and you will get a feel for what I mean.

Wish I locked in TASR gains but I am keeping it - I like the story. But I made a great call with Ferguson and it didn't mean shit. I fucking never hold shit and I was punished. Investors are losers LoL

I have been pretty busy today just trading shit as it cycles up & down. Very good volatility (action) today. Guys like me starve to death this time of year usually cause everyone quits for the holidays and shit stays flat. No price movement - no trading.