The Pooh Stock Market Prediction Thread

[Pooh]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

[sah_24]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

I agree that the market will tank majorly once tapering begins but I do not believe that the FED can ever taper . They were supposed to taper after QE1 then QE 2 then Op Twist , and now they know they have lost control . If they were to taper and the market crashes then they have to admit how shitty the real economy is . I think we have entered QE infinity , where there will be a lot of taper talk but never any action to reduce the FED's balance sheet . If anything I expect they will have to start buying more than they already are at the moment.

[Sanlmar]

We have had one hell of a run since 2007/2008. Retracement is certainly due. Nobody wants to give their gains back so there should be more nervousness. Folks will be looking for the bogeyman in each report.

We are so primed for inflation and have been fearing it for some time. We'll see.

[handicapme]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

If you set a timetable for the 20% correction, i'd be willing to bet you x amount and escrow with Todd. I'd even go as far to say, from the first time they taper (prob march) and give you till year end that you will not have a period of 20% selloff in equities over 2 months. I do however, agree with most of your sentiment, I just think you're thinking to much doomsday vs actual market correction.

[Daly]

"QE is the Roach Motel of monetary policy" - Peter Schiff

Arguing about what tapering will do to the economy is like arguing about what we are all going to do when the sun rises in the west tomorrow AM. If we were going to do the "right" thing we would have done it in 2008. We are in FAR too deep now and there is no unwinding. The big thing that we have going for us is that the rest of the world is perfectly willing to let the lie continue. Like it or not if the USA falls into a deflation the rest of the world is going with us and as bad as it will get here at least we have our first world infrastructure and food belt to fall back on. Asia and Europe would fall into chaos.

[Daly]

Prediction - we fall back a little bit (5-7% 1680 S&P) on overall disappointing Christmas numbers. Then the Fed steps in and we climb the "wall of worry" to new highs. Technically its hard to say how high it would go but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw S&P 2100 at some point in 2014.

That said - nobody can predict the future. Everyone should have a cash horde and a Gold/Silver horde.

[handicapme]

Prediction - we fall back a little bit (5-7% 1680 S&P) on overall disappointing Christmas numbers. Then the Fed steps in and we climb the "wall of worry" to new highs. Technically its hard to say how high it would go but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw S&P 2100 at some point in 2014.

That said - nobody can predict the future. Everyone should have a cash horde and a Gold/Silver horde.

no.

[Goodpoop]

Do you actually watch the market or just listen to CNBC?

[Daly]

Prediction - we fall back a little bit (5-7% 1680 S&P) on overall disappointing Christmas numbers. Then the Fed steps in and we climb the "wall of worry" to new highs. Technically its hard to say how high it would go but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw S&P 2100 at some point in 2014.

That said - nobody can predict the future. Everyone should have a cash horde and a Gold/Silver horde.

no.

OK I'll bite. Why?

[tony bagadonuts]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

Not sure about the 20%, but it's certainly possible and I think your overall take is realistic. Debt securities have largely priced in the inevitable taper, and we could see a relief rally in bonds when tapering is finally announced which would pull money out of equities. It's contrarian to talk about a rally in bonds when the government announces a pull back in purchasing, but we've seen it before. Sell on rumor, buy on news in this case.

Dollar-cost averaging FTW, when the stock market declines it's a great time to buy. Don't forget to re-balance your portfolio you crazy kids.

[son of lockman]

Ten year cycles so good until 2017. Then Heavan help you unles you'll in cash. Look for yourself at the market for the last 50 years. The FED is louring in the people to send them to poortown as always in 4 years. Dow will hit 20,000 but crash well below 10,000. Better suggestion is to buy property. Those that do always win in Monopoly.

[Brittney Griner's Clit]

FLUSH POOH 2014!

Looking for a running mate. Ten toed individual prefered.

[Pooh]

Big jobs/unemployment report Friday morning at 8:30 EST. Expecting a number over 200k. Be interesting to see how the markets react.

[Hockey Guy]

Big jobs/unemployment report Friday morning at 8:30 EST. Expecting a number over 200k. Be interesting to see how the markets react.

Good call.
http://news.ca.msn.com/money/solid-u...ent-to-7-pct-1

[Walter Sobchak]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.

[DJ_Chaps]

Markets reacted nicely. Silver whipsawed and back to basically flat after the news.

[Pooh]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.

How old are you? I'm in the S&P almost exclusively. I'm staying away from fixed income, period.

[Walter Sobchak]

+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.

How old are you? I'm in the S&P almost exclusively. I'm staying away from fixed income, period.

40s. I probably should have less fixed income.

[snake_in_the_ass]

Not sure how many people here invest in the market or follow the economy. I've been following it for about 15 years and find it very interesting. I'm more or less a buy and hold dollar cost average investor so I will continue to invest regardless of what will happen in the future.

I predict the market will tank like nobodys business once they announce the big bad taper. We haven't had a 10% correction now in over a year which is unheard of. We're at the point now where the market actually goes down if there are strong economic numbers. Today was a great example.

I predict close to a 20% correction once they announce a reduction of QE. I also believe it will be a quick 20%..probably over the course of two months. After that I see the market rising to new heights, provided the economy sustains.

I don't believe 2014 will be an overall positive year in the markets especially given the past two years.

+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.

I don't think beating the market is largely luck. I have been doing it for 15+ years. I buy stocks that people hate and sell/short stocks that people love. I was long the housing stocks when they were in the dumps and when PLOL came on this site and said LEN was his #1 pick...it was pretty much a CMONEY type of lock that they would tank. Right now everyone hates gold, silver, and the mining stocks. Even those who preached for years about gold hate it. I am loading up huge on the mining stocks right now: NEM, RGLD, ABX, GG, SLW. Why? Because everyone hates them. I am expecting them to rally 50-100% across the board and then I will sell them. Might take several months but I am patient.

[Daly]

+1

In non-taxable accounts I hold solid blue chip dividend-paying stocks with automatic reinvestment, a few funds for diversification, and a few high grade corporate bonds. In taxable accounts I hold high grade munis and treasuries, the market price of which I don't care about because I don't want to sell them, I want them to generate income so I can buy more. There is no special strategy that outperforms the market in the long term except what Einstein called the magic of compound interest (automatic reinvestment). People sometimes beat the market with a given strategy (a.k.a. a gamble) but it is mathematically proven that this is largely luck, like that Black Swan guy who made a huge gamble and happened to win and now people foolishly buy his books thinking he knows some secret about the market. There is no need to try to predict the short term or care what happens in the short term except that if you have spare cash laying around you should buy on dips. If you have serious amounts of cash like Warren Buffet then a different set of opportunities opens up for you and you can beat the market--like when Buffet lent billions to Goldman in the form of preferred stocks with a guaranteed dividend. For most of us though, just sit tight and let it accumulate, and get more conservative as you get older. Easy game.

Oh and LOL @ gold.

I don't think beating the market is largely luck. I have been doing it for 15+ years. I buy stocks that people hate and sell/short stocks that people love. I was long the housing stocks when they were in the dumps and when PLOL came on this site and said LEN was his #1 pick...it was pretty much a CMONEY type of lock that they would tank. Right now everyone hates gold, silver, and the mining stocks. Even those who preached for years about gold hate it. I am loading up huge on the mining stocks right now: NEM, RGLD, ABX, GG, SLW. Why? Because everyone hates them. I am expecting them to rally 50-100% across the board and then I will sell them. Might take several months but I am patient.

IAG and EXK are my favorites in the space....