Originally Posted by JUSTIFIEDhomicide
I know it's not over, but bink
I know it's not over, but bink
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"Only God can judge me. So either LOVE ME or LEAVE ME ALONE"
IG- Changethegame71 tell me more about how much you hate me, even though you know you can't help but follow me
Headshot you seem to be a cooler. Whenever you take my picks, they lose.
I've lost 7 so far, (7-7-2 overall), and I think you've taken at least 4.
I don't know what happened on both of these. In hindsight my opinion doesn't change. They just didn't stay under.
We should have won the Clips one. That was a last minute screw job. The Dallas one was in trouble for most of the game.
It's been interesting following you as you develop your process
But the consequence of having to watch NBA games has got to make you second guess wether the money is worth it.
GL
You're right - I like the ranking system that you put together and the general logic behind it. Either I'm bad luck or I've been getting cold decked like a silly ass punk..
I'll plan on chasing my bball bet losses so you'll have plenty more chances for redemption. Worst case I could end up the Mayor of Coupon City, CA.
Don't bet NBA.
Keep betting overs for prime time games in NFL.
Ravens WR Steve Smith post game interview was excellent. Guy is a smooth talker.
Dilfer, Rice & Young were owned by Smith's style
Okay, so I'm going to get back on the horse after yesterday's beatdown:
Sac/NO O 200.5 (Type 1)
GS/Mi U 202 (Type 5)
Atl/Was U 200.5 (Type 2)
Same system, so no need for explanation.
Keep in mind that this is all experimental. I am not claiming to be the second coming of Haralabob Voulgaris. I am not claiming to have done extensive research on betting the NBA. This is mostly for fun, so bet along with my picks at your own risk.
I will say that if I continue struggling (or just sit at or near .500 for awhile), I will tone down the number of NBA bets I make, as I'm not going to sink a lot of money or effort into this unless it is doing at least fairly well.
Right now I've bet 16 games, so the sample space is tiny. You can easily get something like 13-3 or 3-13 just by flipping coins.
Wow, within seconds it jumped on Bovada from U 201 -115 to U 200 -105 for the Atlanta game. So I will probably end up passing that one, unless it changes back to at least 200.5 (the Vegas line at the moment). Game starts in 12 minutes.
GS/Mia just fell to 201. I'm still betting it, getting 201 -105 for $735 to win $700 on Bovada.
Sac/NO has just fallen to 199 in Vegas. As I want the over, the Bovada line of 200 -105 isn't good enough, so I will wait.
Well, Bovada is being lame. They usually accept my $700-$800 wagers, but today they rejected my $735 bet on GS/Mia Under. So I had to bet $525 to win $500 instead.
Weak.
Anyway, that's my only bet at the moment, but I will bet the others if the line changes on Bovada properly.
Never mind, I rescind the Sac/NO pick.
Somehow I missed that Rudy Gay is out for Sac, so that changes everything.
Won't be touching that one.
This is ridiculous.. I read through your picks for today, decided :whynot , pulled up my site and couldn't get the action booked on GS/MIA in time.. consequently, you're a lock to win given that I am not on board to cooler this bet. The science dictates victory, GL
I did go with Den -2.5 and also at -4.5 so maybe those will work out..
Of course the bet I didn't do because the Bovada line wasn't good is winning easily, and the one I did place isn't looking good (GS/Mia).
I guess even the Headshot anti-jinx didn't help.
I finally lost a posted play on PFA. I did hit the over though.Small play on the non con over 50.5 since I'm on a cant lose run
Bovada is probably one of the strangest Sportsbooks going. They let you bet big for a little bit and even if you go 50/50 they still cut you back. It's like they hope you are a sub .500 player.
They also cut you on prop bets kind of fast. I got them for $5K on hockey props and they cut me. Sportsbook/5-Dimes take a much longer time before you get cut.
Gosh I wonder what that's like. ONE TIME I want a sportsbook to tell me I might be too smart to bet 5k on a game. They welcome my money I am usually so bad. Shit, I have the option for organs to deposit when I click that link.
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"Only God can judge me. So either LOVE ME or LEAVE ME ALONE"
IG- Changethegame71 tell me more about how much you hate me, even though you know you can't help but follow me
Druff--
any opinion on the Lake show tonight catching 7?
funny thing bovada hasn't cut me off shit but I'm no longer eligible for any promotions when they used to load me up. Now I'm not eligible for even the most basic weekly promos there.
BUT my new "local internet" bookie says his bosses are sweating him big time over my plays. He seriously called me and told me a California IP was showing up in my account and was worried that I was working for a sports bettor "banned from casinos." (I haven't been anywhere near California during my time with this account.)
Of course all that he said was bull shit and he was simply sweating the fact that I'm up around 3500 total after losing 925 my first week. It's hilarious. I can almost guarantee his bosses didn't say shit and he was just mad that I'm cutting into his commission...
Question.
I assume that he gets a cut of all his players losses. Actually I know that to be true. But is he for sure getting fucked when he has a player currently winning? Like lets say all his guys together lose around 5K a week and that's what he's used to. Obviously me coming in and head shotting 2500 last week and being up 1000 this week is fucking him up and that's why he's sweating me?
thoughts?
It's so hilarious he was giving me all this complete bull shit reasons for his call when he was trying to feel me out. This guy knows next to nothing about sports betting. I couldn't control my laughter when he suggested that "a guy banned from casino's" was manning my account for a lol small limit. Oh well the guy is a jerk so I'm loving it.
Picks for today:
Clippers/Detroit - Under 199 (Type 2)
Sac/Houston - Under 193 (Type 2) -- Rudy Gay out, also making under good here. Houston also 2-12 in overs so far!
Memphis/Lakers - Under 202 (Type 2)
Decided to stop picking Type 4 games for now, which counts out Toronto/Atlanta over. Also, Atlanta just played yesterday and is probably tired, so I don't like the over anyway.
Milwaukee/Minnesota is a Type 2, but Milwaukee has been giving up high scores lately in a few games, so I decided I don't like the under, especially given how Minnesota is allowing 110ppg.
Skipping Denver/Phoenix Type 1 because total (215.5) is very high (I think they adjusted a lot for the two-offensive-teams situation.)
I have lost my last 4 bets and last 5 picks, so bet with caution.
Take the under in the UAB Wisonsin game and the Gtown Florida game after that at Atlantis.
Have you seen that gym (ballroom)??? It's like a disco. Plus the rims look stiffer than druff sitting down with Oral Hershiser and Tommy Lasorda.
First half might be the best bet for the under in the second game because it will be close.
UAB vs. Wisonsin under
Gtown vs. Florida under FIRST HALF
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