Baseball BACK

[GrenadaRoger]

If I were a betting man (I'm not) I would look at the projected standings in that link from fangraphs (which takes multiple high-caliber projection systems into account) and then check the pythag/baseruns standings from last season (based off runs scored/allowed while pealing away sequencing (single single homerun = homerun single single or 10-0Win 0-1L = 5-0W 5-1W)) and look at under-performing/over-performing teams (notice Cubs played like 108 win team despite only winning 103, sawks 99W despite 93 actual, royals played like 77 win team despite winning 81) and see which teams I feel have been underrated/overrated by the books (which they base in part off of the bets coming in (right?) from casual fans looking at the actual records, not performance, from prior years). I would also key in on the under with teams that have high-end rental pieces to move at the deadline if they fall out of it (such as the yankees, tigers, royals and pirates off the top of my head). This may be poor advice, I have put very little thought into sports betting prior to this post.

re: projection systems

for the top level teams the systems will over predict imho...the systems neglect to include motivation--which abates when a team wraps up a playoff spot...one needs to look at the competitors in a division race to figure how close a projected division winner will come to its projected win total...for example, the Dodgers are projected by various models to win 98 games, but thenext best team in their division is the Giants with only 87...so if things go as projected, late in season the Dodgers will lead by 10 games and will be resting their stars/letting a few games get away from them that the models would figure they would win...the odds makers seem to understand this, as last I checked, the Dodgers win total was set at 92

[MumblesBadly]

I'm betting on a season of great highlights. And it doesn't even have to be ones from the majors.

[Henry]

I would swap ATL and MIA.

While I don't personally like the construction of either team, the projections have the Marlins down for 79 wins and the Braves for 72, so I'll attempt to defend why that probably is.

The position players for Atlanta are among the worst in baseball (29th). Two studs in Freeman and Inciarte, a solid regular in Swanson, and then six black-holes. Their forth (Phillips), fifth (Flowers), and sixth (Markakis) best position players are projected for 0.8, 0.6, and 0.5 WAR with little upside.

The Marlin's position players are bad (20th), but not Atlanta bad. Two studs in Yelich and Stanton, with several guys who may perform adequately in Realmuto, Ozuna, Prado, Gordon, and Dietrich.

The Atlanta bullpen is awful (29th) while the Marlins are middle of the pack (17th) but have potential to be better than that. That link is Jeff Sullivan showing how the Marlin's top five in the pen this year (Ramos, Bearclaw, Phelps, Tazawa, and Ziegler), were 3rd in ERA and FIP among teams top five. With Ziegler and Phelps being projected light because Ziegler is a rare FIP beater (2.44 career ERA, 3.37 career FIP) due to avoiding hard contact, and Phelps is a former failed starter (4.21 career ERA as a starter) who looked legitimate in the pen last year (2.28 ERA in 86.1 IP).

The Marlins rotation is awful (28th) as you noted, and thin, but the Braves are awful too (26th). And while the Braves do have some really exciting arms in the minors, the ones with bright futures (Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Luiz Gohara, Ian Anderson) haven't made it past A-ball. Wisler and Blair will get first look, and they both looked poor in their first go-rounds in the MLB.

I think Braves management has sold themselves as contenders for 2017, their first season in a new ballpark, and the larger sports media has bought into that (not saying that you're persuaded or that you're basing off this narrative) but their actions are that of a rebuilding club. Management is behaving patient, while throwing up smokescreens such as Chris Sale trade-talks. I think best case for Braves fans has nothing to do with record and it's more about Sawnson and Albies taking the next steps toward stardom, the arms in the farm having a good year, maybe have a couple show something in September (like Newcomb or Fried), and their legit MLB pieces staying healthy and productive (Teheran, Foltynewicz, Freeman, Inciarte).

But I agree the Marlins are not a good team and unless they get extremely fortunate they are unlikely to contend.

Grienke is lucky he dodged a bullet yesterday.. He still looks lost here in AZ.. His velocity was suspect in Spring Training (his last Cactus start he only hit 90 on the gun 2x)

And his 90.8mph average fastball in his first start is down half a tick from last year, only the readings in the ballpark were off a little and the average for all other pitchers was +1.1 mph, meaning his average was more like down 1.5 to 2 ticks from last year, which is extremely bad news.

If anyone can pitch with diminished velocity it's him, but it will likely be the difference between elite performance and good performance. Unfortunately, we can probably stick a fork in 2015 Greinke.

So the Dodgers destroyed the Padres 14-3.

Kershaw threw 6 change-ups last year. He threw 9 yesterday.

Here's one:



Kershaw had the best slider in the game last year, as well as a top ten ranked curveball and a top fifteen fastball.

Starting pitching might be their Achilles heel, though, because once you get past Kershaw, you have Hill (old and easily injured), Maeda (easily injured & tires after a lot of IP), Urias (young, limited innings), and various failpitchers they have sitting around to take the 4th/5th spots of the week.

The 'various failpitchers' you allude to would be Hyun-Jin Ryu, a career 3.28 ERA pitcher in his 57 major league starts, and Alex Wood, a career 3.35 ERA in his 77 big league starts.

Brock Stewart is a dark horse to provide solid innings for your Dodgers.

Here's how he threw strikes and missed bats in the high-minors:



An envious amount of depth. Starting pitchers ranked #1 in baseball.

re: projection systems

for the top level teams the systems will over predict imho...the systems neglect to include motivation--which abates when a team wraps up a playoff spot...one needs to look at the competitors in a division race to figure how close a projected division winner will come to its projected win total...for example, the Dodgers are projected by various models to win 98 games, but thenext best team in their division is the Giants with only 87...so if things go as projected, late in season the Dodgers will lead by 10 games and will be resting their stars/letting a few games get away from them that the models would figure they would win...the odds makers seem to understand this, as last I checked, the Dodgers win total was set at 92

Ahh, yes.

I didn't think about that but you're right wild-card level teams would stand to benefit come the end of the season. Their starters would be facing September call-ups from the playoff locks and also from the playoff eliminated teams running tryouts.

[WillieMcFML]

Kershaw threw 6 change-ups last year. He threw 9 yesterday.

Here's one:



Kershaw had the best slider in the game last year, as well as a top ten ranked curveball and a top fifteen fastball.

he's already so good, adding a legit changeup to his arsenal (helped by the hesitation in his delivery).

game over (until he meets the cards in the playoffs)

[PLOL]

Man, I almost forgot how dreamy that Corey Seager is.

[simpdog]

Jays pitching really well again this year.

Hitting, not so much.

[lewfather]

Tigers shopping Sanchez for some David sunflower seeds

[Sanlmar]

Man, I almost forgot how dreamy that Corey Seager is.

Beautiful Loser
... you just can't have it all

Cubs 4 - Dodgers 0

[Krypt]

Man, I almost forgot how dreamy that Corey Seager is.

For sure this guy has a well below average penis. Do homosapiens like yourself care about size?

[PLOL]

For sure this guy has a well below average penis. Do homosapiens like yourself care about size?

What do you think

[LarryLaffer]

never forget:

http://deadspin.com/22-years-ago-tod...rob-1722019834

You charge the mound because you’re furious. Because you want to hurt someone. You know you’ll be ejected, fined, suspended, but it’s all worth it for brief taste of revenge. You never do it thinking that it all might go horribly wrong, and you might wind up on the receiving end of one of the most iconic beatdowns in sports history. Robin Ventura was one of the finest third baseman to ever play the game of baseball. I can’t hear his name without picturing him in a headlock, being whaled upon by a 46-year-old man.

[jsearles22]

I'll take Cubs u95 $50 and Royals o74 $50

No need to escrow. Just post booked here

Booked. I love season long sweats. Gl

Both teams are essentially .500 at the halfway mark. Should be a fun 2nd half. I feel like Im free rolling because them Cubs aint winning over 95