Originally Posted by BeerAndPoker
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Small sample sizes.
Even if you want to take these as gospel, then remove Blanton and put someone else in to face Coghlan. It's not like we are talking about Kris Bryant here. The guy is a .188 hitter.
Walking the go-ahead to 3rd could not be correct.
Yes, the biggest mistake was Blanton's, by making that bad pitch.
You should tell Sanlmar that managerial decisions in MLB are not as important as coaching decisions in the NBA. He doesn't seem to believe or understand this.
Uh no, even though the trials are few imho there seems to be too big a difference in tentative means (batting averages) to dismiss due to small sample size/variance...this situation can be reduced to a binomial probability (only two outcome - make an out or not make an out) to simplify the analysis...then ask the question, who is more probable to make the third out, such as: what are the odds that Montero is equal to or less likely to make an out? 10% more likely to make an out? 15% more likely to make an out?
my claim, small sample size showing Montero>Coghlan to not make out is possible, but not probable; further, Montero is more likely to make an out
Druff claim, the sample size is too small to determine if Montero is more likely to make an out
we'd need some math quants to work out the percentages. But i think i know enough statistics from college to claim that even with the limited number of trials, the probabilities of outcomes seen so far for each batter can be worked out to show a high probability with small sampling error risk such that the true means being different enough to justify support Roberts decision
Last edited by GrenadaRoger; 10-17-2016 at 07:47 PM.
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
Um, this isn't about Montero versus Coghlan.
Uh no, even though the trials are few imho there seems to be too big a difference in tentative means (batting averages) to dismiss due to small sample size/variance...this situation can be reduced to a binomial probability (only two outcome - make an out or not make an out) to simplify the analysis...then ask the question, who is more probable to make the third out, such as: what are the odds that Montero is equal to or less likely to make an out? 10% more likely to make an out? 15% more likely to make an out?
my claim, small sample size showing Montero>Coghlan to not make out is possible, but not probable; further, Montero is more likely to make an out
Druff claim, the sample size is too small to determine if Montero is more likely to make an out
we'd need some math quants to work out the percentages. But i think i know enough statistics from college to claim that even with the limited number of trials, the probabilities of outcomes seen so far for each batter can be worked out to show a high probability with small sampling error risk such that the true means being different enough to justify support Roberts decision
Yes, if I had to choose between Blanton facing a guy who was 8-17 against him or one who was 2-11, I would go for the 2-11.
But this involved something much bigger. It involved walking the go-ahead run to third, as well as the insurance run to 2nd. You went to a situation where any hit scores a run, a passed ball/wild pitch/balk scores a run, and where many singles will score 2 runs. That's a really expensive walk.
Now, I could see this justified if an absolute monster hitter is coming up. Like Daniel Murphy. I could see the argument that you'd rather face some fail PH with the bases loaded than Murphy with 1st and 2nd. But I can't ever see doing this for Chris Coghlan. Never.
I probably won't be going to the NLCS. Ticket prices are just too damn high.
Sure, they've come down a little. However, tomorrow's game is still costing $600 for the same seats I paid $108 for in the NLDS. That's some markup. Amazingly, I can't even acquire the worst seats in the stadium for that $108 I paid last week!
It's because of the large Cubs fanbase in LA. Over the years, many Chicagoans have moved to LA to get away from the freezing weather, yet they took their Cubs fandom with them. The same wasn't true when the Dodgers faced St. Louis in the NLCS in 2013, nor was it the case when they faced Philly in 2008/2009. I got all of those games cheap. This time, not only are they facing a franchise with a large fanbase in this city, but the fanbase is loyal, excited, and believes that this is their year. They've been waiting their whole lives for this, and they aren't going to let an expensive ticket deter them from being part of it.
Amazingly, if the Dodgers do make the World Series, I could actually see the tickets being cheaper than the NLDS, as Cleveland (yeah, I think we can safely say Cleveland now) isn't going to draw big crowds in LA on its own merits.
lol @ frank kaminsky a lifelong white sox fan trolling cubbie nation
for the record, i actually hate the white sox and want to see the cubs win.
so in your first two lines is the admission "small sample" was not a sound argument against Henry's post; damn nice of you to cave old chapUm, this isn't about Montero versus Coghlan.
Yes, if I had to choose between Blanton facing a guy who was 8-17 against him or one who was 2-11, I would go for the 2-11.
But this involved something much bigger. It involved walking the go-ahead run to third, as well as the insurance run to 2nd. You went to a situation where any hit scores a run, a passed ball/wild pitch/balk scores a run, and where many singles will score 2 runs. That's a really expensive walk.
Now, I could see this justified if an absolute monster hitter is coming up. Like Daniel Murphy. I could see the argument that you'd rather face some fail PH with the bases loaded than Murphy with 1st and 2nd. But I can't ever see doing this for Chris Coghlan. Never.
I probably won't be going to the NLCS. Ticket prices are just too damn high.
Sure, they've come down a little. However, tomorrow's game is still costing $600 for the same seats I paid $108 for in the NLDS. That's some markup. Amazingly, I can't even acquire the worst seats in the stadium for that $108 I paid last week!
It's because of the large Cubs fanbase in LA. Over the years, many Chicagoans have moved to LA to get away from the freezing weather, yet they took their Cubs fandom with them. The same wasn't true when the Dodgers faced St. Louis in the NLCS in 2013, nor was it the case when they faced Philly in 2008/2009. I got all of those games cheap. This time, not only are they facing a franchise with a large fanbase in this city, but the fanbase is loyal, excited, and believes that this is their year. They've been waiting their whole lives for this, and they aren't going to let an expensive ticket deter them from being part of it.
Amazingly, if the Dodgers do make the World Series, I could actually see the tickets being cheaper than the NLDS, as Cleveland (yeah, I think we can safely say Cleveland now) isn't going to draw big crowds in LA on its own merits.
the rest of your rationalization doesn't mention the countervailing ideas that might have been part of Robert's assessment: the Dodgers are not likely to score another run in the game against a top left handed relief pitcher, thus getting the third out in that situation is perhaps the most probably path to victory in this game..then there is the effect on the rest of the series--the Dodgers can't afford an extra inning game the uses up an already tired bullpen, an extra inning game may cost the Dodgers game 2 or even 3 if the bullpen is shot
anyway it was a great game.
re: series tickets -- i would suspect world series prices may be higher, it will be interesting to see what happens--i think many business will buy tickets to entertain key clients for world series games, there is something prestige about doing that: i saw that happening in 1977 & 1978 when i was new with at my Big 8 CPA all the partners in the LA Office suddenly were in a rush to get tickets and invite clients to games: the goal was to cement the relationship/source up more business by having the client isolated in their presence for a few hours;
Last edited by GrenadaRoger; 10-18-2016 at 12:44 AM.
(long before there was a PFA i had my Grenade & Crossbones avatar at DD)
Bartman is a dark moment in Chicago Cubs history. I see other teams trolling the Cubs with Bartman all the time and I think it's totally inappropriate. Not because it's disrespectful to the Cubs, but because it's disrespectful to Mr. Bartman, himself.
TRUMP 2024!
I think by now people understand how small an impact the Bartman incident had on the game given the rest of the Cubs fail.
I think the 30 for 30 piece was the seminal work on the subject of Bartman.
Bartman brought out the colossal frustration of Cubs fans and they demonstrated the frustration by putting this poor guy on the cross.
Unlike "the fellowship of the miserable" in Boston pre 2004 which skewed more toward anger - Cubs fans were always viewed as resigned losers. Somewhat proud of and accepting of their fail.
Bartman changed that. Now Cubs fans were just viewed as mean.
Cubs fans created the meme and tortured the poor guy. Don't put this on us.
The conversation that comes up in Boston is "what will those assholes do to make amends to Bartman?" Will they invite him on Chicago's version of the duck boat during the parade?
This is on you PLOP. Don't project your character flaws on us.
Now I feel like the mean one PLOL. I understand you are in the throws of a cathartic episode. I'm a sensitive guy too.
Look, if it's any consolation I offer this:
Dodgers fans are worse than Cubs fans. While Cubs fans were resigned losers Dodgers fans are apathetic losers.
A city must pay its dues. LA cannot join Philly, Chicago, Boston or NY in the pantheon of great sports towns until true suffering is felt. It builds character. LA is void of character.
Imagine Kershaw gives up a 2 run game deciding homer in the 7th of game 6. The guy on first was walked on 4 pitches and Roberts leaves Kershaw in.
You can buy a Kershaw jersey.
There, feel better? I see the smile. Attaboy.
Should I have used a spoiler?
your thoughts on the match up, how do you see it tonight?
World Series MVP Odds:
Corey Kluber 8/1
Jon Lester 11/1
Clayton Kershaw 12/1
Jake Arrieta 13/1
My quick take.
your thoughts on the match up, how do you see it tonight?
Arrieta has come back to earth a little bit. Hill has been overachieving.
Dodgers have been good at home but I never give their regular season success much value against real iron.
Cubs are still a better and deeper team in all phases of the game on the whole. Lines having them as a small road favorite seems right.
My thought today involves revisiting my repeated admonishion to Druff regarding the difference between the regular season and tournament play. Has the difference in strategy (relief!) and performance ever been so dramatic?
With regard to Druff's variance crutch... the results so far have been pretty true with regard to who we thought the better teams were at the start.
Toronto vs. Cleveland was more of a question that needed to be answered on the field.
Last edited by Sanlmar; 10-18-2016 at 10:18 AM.
I heard the story last night on air that Pedroia had repeatedly called his ex Manager Francona about picking up his ex teammate Napoli.
Francona and Pedroia's friendship and cribbage.
Miller as Tito's ex Red Sox player. I don't see the Miller strategy as sustainable in the next round. We will see.
Tito Francona sweeping and closing out series in Fenway. The hate and the satisfaction.
Theo, Lester, Lackey and Ross. Again, deep stories about hatred for the Red Sox (except Ross).
Ex Red Sawk Roberts with LA.
It's all about the Red Sox back stories. It has made watching the playoffs especially enjoyable for me.
You got me going Henry. Not that I really needed the push.
Last thing and I'll shut it down.
I was channel surfing last night and caught Real Sports with that pompous douchebag Bryant Gumbel.
They had a piece on "baseball pitching technology that determines balls and strikes". Absolutely recommend. Some really compelling stats for the stat-head
As the piece finishes there is Gumbel (is he suffering from AIDS? Looks terrible) scribbling his notes like he just saw this for the first time. Does this every segment. What an affectation. What a douchebag.
You see a common theme today? Yup, it's the hate that lets me know I am alive
I wonder if Bartman watched the 30 for 30 program. That guys life was turned upside down.
"I hit that shot because it was a defining moment and when a defining moment comes along, you either define the moment or the moment defines you" Roy "Tin Cup" Mcevoy
.
Last edited by Henry; 10-18-2016 at 03:57 PM.
Everybody is focused on the Cubs and the NLCS and such. How the fuck are people missing the bigger picture here.. Cleveland hasn't lost a fucking game in the playoffs yet folks..They are in the process of potentially doing something that's never been done.. KC tried to do the impossible, went 8-0 to get to the WS and of course lost to San Fran in the WS (they did however win the WS last year in 2015 proving they weren't a fluke team before imploding this year again). The Big Red Machine did go undefeated in 1976 but only had to win 7 games to win the NLCS and World Series. KC was the first team to go 8-0 EVER in baseball playoff history.. I like them to finish off Toronto, which would put them one game from tying KCs 8 in a row, hell at this point is a perfect 11-0 possible if the Cubs somehow pull it out against LA?? I think so.. Cubs could then say well it wasn't the curse we just ran into a team that peaked literally at the playoffs and went into buzzsaw mode. I think Cleveland has a harder time against LA honestly pulling off the feat given Kershaw's insane playoffs so far.. (Game 2 was the first time in 50 yrs the Dodgers won a 1-0 playoff game). Can you imagine if the Indians pull off the a WS title after the Cavaliers won the NBA title only a few months ago.. Suddenly Cleveland would think they were fucking TitleTown USA roflmao..
EDIT: Well figures as soon as I post this the Indians have completely shit the bed in game 4.. Toronto will leave to fight another day.. Game 5 tomorrow
Last edited by ftpjesus; 10-18-2016 at 03:06 PM.
BOOM
Arrieta 2015 does not equal Arrieta 2016
In before Henry gives me a hard time for criticizing Grandal
potent lineup and can't hit worth a shit in the playoffs. The curse might be real
Almora should be in the lineup.
oh yeah sounds good does he get it nice and hard for you
LOL. Now Cub fans are turning on Joe Maddon huh? It's not a curse, the Cubs just suck. Always have and always will.
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