Well done but 3 pters in game <> 3 pt contest
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Running another sim using catch-and-shoot 3P%
The moral of the story is that Curry and Bosh are both WAY overpriced. Should be approximately 20% and exactly 0%, respectively.
catch-and-shoot model
combined model, essentially double weighting wide-open & catch-and-shoot 3P attempts, the shot most closely resembling the contestCode:curry 20% +411
redick 22% +356
thompson 10% +871
booker 11% +800
middleton 12% +710
lowry 18% +444
mccollum 4% +2654
harden 3% +3528
Code:curry 20% +411
redick 19% +426
thompson 13% +641
booker 12% +718
middleton 12% +752
lowry 11% +844
mccollum 7% +1369
harden 7% +1426
thanks IAPT, fucking phenomenal...guess redick is fairly priced...fuck...
very, very, very interesting on booker...
gonna fire on both and hope for a booker upset...
LOL, just went to fire on booker and the lines have fucking shifted like crazy...wtf!??!
97569 STEPHEN CURRY, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +108
97570 JAMES HARDEN, HOUSTON ROCKETS +1078
97571 KLAY THOMPSON, GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS +569
97572 KHRIS MIDDLETON, MILWAUKEE BUCKS +529
97573 KYLE LOWRY, TORONTO RAPTORS +759
97574 JJ REDICK, LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS +337
97575 CHRIS BOSH, MIAMI HEAT +4941
97576 DEVIN BOOKER, PHOENIX SUNS +630
TMMLK'S LOCK OF THE NBA ALL STAR GAME
UNDER 316.5
WEST IS OBV A GOD TEAM, BUT I THINK EAST HAS A SHOT TO COVER AT +6
:hof
:ohh
Let's discuss the NBA All Star total.
All the $ is flowing on over. It's gone up to 317.
Last year it finished at 321 (the game, not the line).
TMMLK thinks it will go under.
I kind of think that, too.
One factor is Kobe Bryant. He is old, slow, and can't shoot. He's a starter on the team, and I think they will be giving him the ball a lot, because it's his final year. I think this will slow down scoring. Recall that scoring has to be at breakneck speed (almost 7 points per minute) in order to go over.
Opinions?
No opinion other than the total seems to go up 10 points every year and it still always goes over.
Maybe more effort on defense with the entire week off?
Did the all star game where Magic played with Aids hit under or over?
I wonder how the court, rims, and sight lines are in the MGM? I've never seen a game there. I swear I have these teams pegged though. 8k uptick risking only 220 a game. (One degen parlay.) This local bookie is keeping me in the game. I've already got slow payed like 4 times but that got me to stop doing parlays. It's the worst bookie of all time.
And I don't want to be a dick but please don't be a guy setting up a Peter D.C. You remind me of him. For all I know you are nice to me because you fear my loose cannon tendencies. Rolling innocent people is super low.
Also if I don't post much anymore I'm still looking for spots to bet the Magic as I've loved them all year. My other bet on teams are the Nuggets and also the Celtics.
Only a real degenerate would bet on the NBA all star game.
That said put me down for 1 unit of under 317.5
I saw a Pac 12 tournament game there a few years ago. The venue is fine for basketball.
"The last bullet is always blank."
Let me know if you need a free room at Caesar's. Just charge everything to your credit card but my comps will cover it. I promise.
Wow. Thanks. I will decline because it is not something I need but thanks anyway.
Strangely there's actually some value on the hefty lefty, one of the most overrated golfers of all time, as he tries to hold a 2 stroke lead for his last career win
Mickelson to win Pebble Beach Pro-Am ... -177
Mickelson vs Jacobson H2H 4th Round ... -174